2023 Masters prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions
The golf world is centered around Augusta National once again this week for the 1st major of the year, the 2023 Masters. The field features the top players in the world from both the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, the 1st time this year that they’ll be playing in the same event.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Masters odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Jon Rahm headlines the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings as the No. 1 player, followed by Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Tony Finau. Scheffler is the defending champion, seeking to become the first back-to-back winner since Tiger Woods defended his title in 2001. McIlroy, Rahm, Schauffele and Finau are all trying for their 1st green jacket.
Augusta National will play a bit more difficult this year, and not just because the weather forecast is calling for colder temperatures and rain. The iconic 13th hole has been lengthened 35 yards by moving the tee box back, which will prevent a lot of players from going for the green in 2 – or at least put a long iron in their hands instead of a wedge. Overall, Augusta will play as a par 72 and 7,545 yards this week.
2023 Masters leaderboard, news, groupings, course details and more from Golfweek and USA TODAY. Catch the tournament April 6-9.
Masters – Top-5 picks
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 2:36 p.m. ET.
Jon Rahm (+188)
Rahm has the worst top-5 odds of the “big three” of McIlroy, Scheffler and himself. I’m not sure that should be the case, though. In 4 of the last 5 Masters, Rahm has finished in the top 10 with final positions of 5th, 7th, 9th and 4th. He already has 3 wins in 9 starts this season, coming in the top 10 at 6 events.
Xander Schauffele (+350)
Schauffele is a little bit of a sleeper this week, but he’s a player with 2 top-5 finishes in his last 4 Masters starts: 3rd in 2021 and 2nd in 2019. He’s a bargain at +350 for a top-5, given his course history and all-around game for a course like Augusta.
Scottie Scheffler (+130)
Scheffler finished 18th and 19th in his 2 Masters starts before winning it last year, so he’s always played well here. He’s arguably the hottest player in the world, too, with 2 wins in his last 5 starts, including a 4th-place finish at the Dell Match Play.
Other T5 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Cameron Smith (+333)
- Jordan Spieth (+300)
Masters – Top-10 picks
Collin Morikawa (+200)
Morikawa has improved his Masters finish each year he’s played here, going from 44th to 18th to 5th last year. His iron play will always make him a threat to win a green jacket, but he needs to get the putter going in order to break through and win on Sunday. He’s hard to pass up at +200.
Jason Day (+200)
Here’s the complete list of players with more top-10 finishes than Day this season: Scottie Scheffler. That’s it. He has 6 in 13 starts this season, often finding himself near the top of the leaderboard despite going winless so far this year – and since 2018.
Tony Finau (+200)
Finau has 3 top-10s in his 5 career starts at the Masters. That’s as good a ratio as anyone in the field, and he’s also made the cut all 5 times. In 10 starts this season, Finau has 9 top-25s and 3 top-10s. He’s a great fit for Augusta and his track record backs that up.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Will Zalatoris (+275)
- Sungjae Im (+260)
- Cameron Young (+225)
Masters – Top-20 picks
Corey Conners (+110)
This is one of my favorite bets, and you’ll be hearing more about Conners later on in this post. In his last 4 Masters starts, Conners, has 3 top-10s and a T-46. He’s fresh off a win at the Valero Texas Open and is one of the best iron players in the world. Take him to finish in the top 20 again at Augusta.
Min Woo Lee (+150)
Lee finished 14th in his Masters debut a year ago and is playing even better now than he was this time last year. He battled with the big guns at the Players Championship when he finished 6th, showing he can compete as a top player in the world.
Viktor Hovland (+100)
Hovland doesn’t have a top-20 yet at the Masters, which is surprising. But in 3 starts, he’s finished 21st, 27th and 32nd, so he’s come close. At even money, he’s a good value to finally crack the top 20.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Cameron Champ (+500)
- Tom Kim (+188)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+110)
Masters – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Xander Schauffele (+100) vs. Patrick Cantlay (-125)
It’s not that I don’t like Cantlay this week, it’s just that Schauffele at even money against him is too good to pass up. Cantlay has missed the cut twice here, while Schauffele has only done so once; he’s also finished in the top 3 twice, which Cantlay has never done.
Corey Conners (-110) vs. Sam Burns (-110)
Back to Conners we go. He has 3 straight top-10 finishes here, while Burns missed the cut in his debut a year ago. Both players won their most recent starts on the PGA Tour, but I’ll take the course history with Conners.
Jordan Spieth (-120) vs. Justin Thomas (-105)
Spieth has won on Easter the last 2 years. Easter Sunday falls on the final round of the Masters this year. Take Spieth.
All kidding aside, that’s not the only reason to bet him to beat Thomas. Spieth might be the more volatile player but he has the magic to make a run at another green jacket this week.
Masters – Top American
Xander Schauffele (+1400)
There are 8 players with equal or better odds than Schauffele to be the top American. Yet, there are 8 players overall with equal or better odds than Schauffele to win the whole thing. Make it make sense. Schauffele is a great value at +1400 to be the top American, taking Cam Smith, Rahm and McIlroy out of the picture at the top of the board.
Masters – Top Canadian
Corey Conners (-135)
There are only 4 Canadians in the field this week: Conners, Mackenzie Hughes, Adam Svensson and Mike Weir. Conners is the heavy favorite, as he should be, but his odds should probably be even shorter than they are at -135.
Masters – First-round leader
Sungjae Im (+4000)
Im ranks 6th on tour in 1st-round scoring average, which puts him in great company near the likes of Scheffler, Rahm and Max Homa. Im has played the Masters 3 times and has come in the top 10 twice, including a runner-up finish in 2020.
Jon Rahm (+1600)
Rahm might have some added motivation after his last 2 starts on tour, a WD at the Players and failing to make the Round of 16 at the WGC Match Play. He’s also dropped from his post as the No. 1 player in the world. He’ll come out firing and post a low number on Thursday.
Masters – To make the cut
Jason Day, Max Homa and Tony Finau all to make the cut (-150)
At -150, this bet might seem steep. But all 3 are playing the best they ever have as professionals and come in with legitimate chances to win the Masters. Not only do I expect all 3 to make the cut, but they all could crack the top 40 or 20.
Group D winner: Corey Conners (+375)
Conners has Brooks Koepka (+400), Matt Fitzpatrick (+275), Burns (+350) and Tyrrell Hatton (+375) in his betting group. It’s hard to know how Koepka will play after leaving the PGA Tour, and he’s missed the cut the last 2 years here. Burns missed the cut here in his only start last year and Hatton has never finished better than T-18. Fitzpatrick is the biggest threat to Conners.
Tom Kim and Tommy Fleetwood both to finish in top 40 (+120)
Fleetwood is 5 for 6 in made cuts at Augusta, finishing in the top 40 four times. Kim is making his Masters debut but he’s already a 2-time winner on tour and has no weaknesses in his game.
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