2023 Mexico Open: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting picks for the 2023 Mexico Open. Use the PrizePicks promo codeGRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

The PGA Tour brings one of the weaker fields in recent memory over the border for the Mexico Open. Vidanta Villarta host the event for the second year in a row after Jon Rahm won the inaugural event last season. This year, Rahm returns with a green jacket in tow, looking to defend his title. His opposition? Well… Are sports betting sites justified with their extreme pricing on Jon Rahm. We will see. Let’s get to this week’s betting picks.

2023 Mexico Open at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – April 26th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

2023 Mexico Open: PGA Golf Betting Picks This Week

• Course: Vidanta Villarta
• Date: April 27 – 31
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,456
• Greens: Paspalum

Key Statistics

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• Driving Distance
• SG: Putting
• SG: Par 5
• Sand Saves
• BOB Gained

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Byeong-Hun An +3500 (BetMGM)

With this week’s betting preview we address the elephant in the room. Jon Rahm is a massive favorite to repeat as the champion of the Mexico Open. When you look at the rest of the field, there is no surprise that Rahm is priced so aggressively. Only Tony Finau is ranked within the OWGR Top 50 from this week’s field. Rahm is in a league of his own surrounded by a bunch of players that normally wouldn’t even share the same space.

So, how can we approach? Admittedly, we are having a down year without a single outright hitting up to this point. To monitor our bankroll, I think we pick golfers down the board and if Rahm beats us, he beats us. We won’t invest too much this year and look to get a good price for some of the bombers that might profile well on this course.

That said, welcome Benny An to the fold. Recently in great form after struggling for so long, An checks many of the boxes we are looking for this week. Driving distance, birdies, and eagles are all facets to Benny’s game that make him stand out amongst the rest of the field — apart from Jon Rahm.

He has not missed a cut in quite some time and recently finished sixth at Valero. An is long enough to find many opportunities this week at this course. With length not an issue, we comfortably place a bet for 0.7 units on BetMGM.

Stephen Jaeger +4500 (PointsBet)

Jaeger Bombs! Stephen Jaeger is perfect for a betting or fantasy column because he offers a skillset that matches that nickname.

Jaeger is 14th in SG: OTT and 29th in driving distance this week. Last year, he finished in 15th place in a slightly better field. We have seen impressive performances from Jaegar in lesser fields this season and there won’t be one much weaker than this week if we exclude Jon Rahm. Assuming Jaeger can continue to excel off the tee, he should be in prime position to take advantage of many opportunities.

We will add him to our card for 0.55 units on PointsBet — the best odds offering at the time of this writing.

Will Gordon +7000 (FanDuel)

Will Gordon also checks out off-the-tee boxes for this week’s event. Gordon is 9th in driving distance and 14th in SG: OTT.

The distance on his tee shots likely aids his 26th ranking in Eagles. Conveniently, Gordon rests in the top 30 in sand saves on a course filled with sand. If Jon Rahm or Tony Finau do not clobber the field, this event is ripe for a first-time winner on tour. Gordon struggled on Valero but showed off well at his preceding events, gaining strokes on approach in six straight events. At this price, we are not looking for perfection.

We wager 0.35 units on Gordon to hoist a trophy for the first time.

Akshay Bhatia +11000 (PointsBet)

Finally, we fall down the board for the mercurial Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia lit the golf world on fire in Corales with his second-round 63 in Punta Cana that flirted with a PGA scoring record for a bit. True to my earlier characterization, Bhatia could not light the scoreboard up in the third or fourth round and fell down the board a bit.

Bhatia is going to make birdies, ranking 5th in this week’s field in BOB Gained. He doesn’t rank high in many of our other categories but at this price we are hoping he catches lightning in a bottle for more than one round. Bhatia is exactly the type of player to target in a field like this one — a golfer on the upswing in a weaker field that can make a name for himself.

He will only cost us 0.2 units on PointsBet.

With this addition we kept our card under two units which is well-needed given our struggles this season. A win here would put us back in range for a profitable season.

2023 Mexico Open Betting Card

RBC Heritage Total Units in Play – 1.8

2023 Net Units: -28.80

Good luck with all of your golf betting picks and DFS lineups this week.

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Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.