2023 MLB playoffs: Best bets, picks for ALCS Game 3 on Wednesday with the Astros headed back out on the road

With the Trea Turner plays being 8-0 so far through eight Phillies playoff games here on Best Bets, it's mildly depressing to run through these on days when the Phillies don't play, but we'll make do. We hit the Rangers' team total over in the first inning of Game 2 in this series, anyway, so we'll be looking to keep that going. 

The playoff record so far here in Best Bets is a robust 22-10. As a reminder, I'm also doing game picks over on SportsLine. 

Astros (+113) at Rangers (-133), 8:03 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: RHP Cristian Javier (10-5, 4.56 ERA) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (13-6, 3.77 ERA)

The Astros head to Texas with an 0-2 deficit and a major uphill battle. Their only saving grace here is they don't have to play at home, because for whatever reason, that's been a problem. They are 40-45 at home in the regular season and playoffs combined while having, so far, gone 53-30 on the road. 

As a reminder, though, the Rangers still haven't lost a playoff game. They are 7-0 so far this postseason despite having played six of those games on the road. When they finally returned home in the ALDS, they cruised to a 7-1 win.

The play: Astros over 4.5 runs (+105)

In six games in Arlington this season, the Astros scored 58 runs. Yes, almost 10 per game. They closed with four straight 10-plus run games, including one where they touched up Scherzer for seven runs in three innings. No matter the road venue, the Astros averaged 5.7 runs away from home in the regular season and scored 12 runs on the road in their two ALDS games. At this point, it isn't worth wondering why they are a ton better away from home and instead it's worth embracing for gambling gains. 

Plus, I'm not sure Scherzer holds up a while. Even if he throws well, his simulated game last week was only 69 pitches, so maybe he could go 80? The Astros have a few patient hitters that could get him to that total in the fifth inning, or even the fourth. Further, one of the reasons Bruce Bochy let Nathan Eovaldi work his way out of two jams in Game 2 is their bullpen is so shaky. 

With a possibly compromised Scherzer, the underbelly of the Rangers' bullpen likely exposed and the Astros being away from home, I like the road team to feast here on offense.