2023 MLB predictions: Why Yordan Alvarez could be an RBI machine

Pull hitting and speed will be the new fads in Major League Baseball this coming season.

If only those rules had been implemented 15 years ago, Jason Giambi and David Ortiz might still be playing.

Bigger bases, pitch clocks, and limits on shifting have changed the way we should view and bet on baseball.

During spring training, stolen base attempts were up 65 percent compared to last year, with the success rates also up eight percent.

Teams will run a lot more, and defensive shifts will no longer hold those powerful, lefty bats hostage.

With that, we look at one power hitter who has been a thorn in the Yankees’ side for a few years already.

Yordan Alvarez most RBIs in MLB (+1000, PointsBet)

The only thing that holds anyone back from a Yordan Alvarez Most Valuable Player bet is the mythical sensation that is Shohei Ohtani.

Part of this bet is about the opportunity. Another is about the rule-change effect.

Alvarez was shifted against on 88.3 percent of his plate appearances last season, the eighth most in MLB history.

He had 27 hits taken away from him due to the shift, the fourth most in all of baseball according to Baseball Savant (hard-hit balls snagged by shortstops or second basemen in the shift).

As for the odds, FantasyPros and Fangraphs project Alvarez to have the fourth-most and fifth-most RBIs in MLB this season, which is likely the reason for these current odds.

But diving into their projections, FantasyPros and Fangraphs expect Alvarez to take 507 and 514 at-bats, respectively.

That is because of the nagging hand injury he sustained in spring training. He had recovered as of last week and is back in the starting lineup full-time.

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With those projections outdated, we can now project Alvarez to have 540 at-bats, still a lenient projection, given no model projects injuries.

We can then safely project his RBIs number, using Fangraphs’ model, to 109.2, equal to those of the current favorites, Aaron Judge (+700) and Pete Alonso (+750), on PointsBet.

Back Alvarez this season as a multi-MVP caliber player in the American League starting next year — once Mets owner Steve Cohen brings Ohtani over to the National League.