2023 NASCAR Homestead-Miami odds, picks and predictions for Cup Series playoff race in South Florida
Two races will determine the final three spots in the chase for the NASCAR Cup Series championship.
Miami will be the site of this week’s race, which is the second Round of 8, as the top four drivers left standing will go head-to-head on Nov. 5 in Phoenix, with Kyle Larson already clinching one of those spots with a win last week at Las Vegas.
This week, however, it’s not necessarily a win-and-you’re-in situation in the 4EVER 400 presented by Mobil 1 at the 1.5-mile Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Two drivers – William Byron and Martin Truex Jr. – could clinch on points if Larson wins again. Both Byron and Truex, who are second and third, respectively, in points, could advance to the Final Four if Larson wins and they finish 56 points above the third winless driver, who happens to be Denny Hamlin.
Everyone else in the final eight – Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney and Chris Buescher – would need to win Sunday to clinch.
Larson has taken the checkered flag once already in Miami, heading to victory lane last year. Hamlin has the most wins of any active driver in Sunday’s field with three. Byron and Truex also have wins at the 1.5-mile South Florida track.
FrontPageBets takes a look at drivers to watch in the NASCAR Cup Series 4EVER 400 playoff race at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Sunday afternoon (2:30 p.m.; NBC).
Pick to win: Denny Hamlin (+700)
Currently, Hamlin is right inside the cutline in terms of points for the Final Four. A win Sunday would clinch his spot for the fifth time in his career.
And if anyone can do it, it’s the driver of the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota.
In 18 career starts in Miami, Hamlin has the three wins, five top-5 and 12 top-10s for an average finish of 9.8. He’s led 397 laps there, which is the second best among playoff drivers.
Top-3 pick: William Byron (+200)
The best driver in the series this year, Byron, who has six wins in 2023, stands the greatest chance to qualify for the Final Four – either on points or by a victory.
The driver of the No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevy has never qualified for the Championship round.
Byron earned his first career win in South Florida in 2021. In five starts there, he’s only got one other top-10 finish. Byron also was on the pole last year.
Top-5 pick: Kevin Harvick (+250)
Racing in his final Cup season, Kevin Harvick is still winless in 2023.
With just three races remaining in his Hall of Fame career, Harvick can still prove he’s got some magic left with a strong showing in South Florida.
And the 1.5-mile track has been good to Harvick, driver of the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford. He has one career win back in 2014, while also racking up 12 top-5 and 19 top-10 finishes in 22 career races.
Yes, he’s finished in the top 10 in 86.4% of his starts in Miami.
His average finish is 7.3, and has led 414 career laps.
Harvick has never missed a lap out of the 5,878 possible over his Cup career.
Odds-on favorites to win the 4EVER 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway
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