National League Division Series Best Bets: Braves vs Phillies, Dodgers vs DBacks

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down who he thinks advances in the National League Division Series between the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies, plus the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Atlanta Braves (-175) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (+145)

The Braves went 8-5 against the Phillies this season, including a 5-1 mark in Philadelphia. Atlanta won three of four in Philadelphia to secure the NL East last month when there was playoff positioning riding for both teams.

That was our first taste of postseason baseball between these two teams and the Braves proved they were the superior team despite this matchup featuring two of the top five offenses in baseball.

Atlanta has the best offense in baseball and a trio of starting pitchers that can damage ranging from Spencer Strider to Max Fried and Charlie Morton. Fried and Morton are coming off the 15-day IL, but are expected to be fine for the NLDS.

Ranger Suarez and Taijuan Walker will need to give the Phillies significant innings against Atlanta, and I am not sure they will or can.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler’s starts will feel like must-win games and the Braves offense can dominate from ahead and play from behind, which will make the Phillies road to a second consecutive World Series all that more difficult.

My World Series pick is the Atlanta Braves at +300, so of course, I have to roll with them to win this series despite the hefty -200 tag.

Pick: Braves (-200)

Los Angeles Dodgers (-205) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (+175)

The Dodgers lost in the NLDS last year to the Padres, 3-1, and this year it’s the Diamondbacks’ turn to attempt a takedown on the NL West’s cream of the crop.

The last time these two squads met in the postseason, the Dodgers swept the DBacks in 2017, 3-0. I don’t think it will be that simple this time.

Los Angeles will trout out a 35-year-old Clayton Kershaw, plus Lance Lynn and Bobby Miller as the starting pitching rotation for the first three games of this series.

Of all eight remaining postseason squads, Los Angeles may have the weakest starting pitching rotation, which means the Dodgers’ offense will need to be humming. Los Angeles hit the second-most homers (249) during the regular season, while Arizona was 22nd (166).

Both of these squads ranked 13th and 20th in ERA during the regular season, so expect plenty of runs in this contest. Arizona won two road games at Milwaukee and came from behind to win, showing the qualities of a winning team in October.

Los Angeles has won five straight against Arizona and went 8-5 during the regular season against the Diamondbacks. I don’t think Arizona lays down versus Los Angeles, and playing a familiar opponent should be beneficial for the young DBacks.

I think Arizona at +1.5 on the series spread (-145) is a better bet than taking the Dodgers to win outright at -205 odds. The DBacks can take advantage of the Dodgers pitching.

Pick: Diamondbacks +1.5 (-145)

Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.