2023 NFL, college football odds, picks for Thanksgiving Day by proven model: This 4-way parlay pays 12-1

Thanksgiving Day's annual football feast features a hefty slate of professional and college football games this year, highlighted by three NFL divisional matchups and the Egg Bowl between Ole Miss and Mississippi State. The day gets started at 12:30 p.m. ET with the Lions (8-2) and Packers (4-6) in a showdown between NFC North rivals. They will be followed by the Cowboys (7-3) and Commanders (4-7), who will be meeting for the 11th time on Thanksgiving. Then, the No. 12 Rebels and Bulldogs square off in Starkville, Miss., in the lone FBS game of the day.

Finally, the 49ers (7-3) and Seahawks (6-4) close out the Thanksgiving football schedule at 8:20 p.m. ET with the lead in NFC West on the line. Before making any NFL or college football predictions for Thanksgiving Day, you need to see what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 175-126 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 29-18 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. The model is also up well over $2,000 all-time on top-rated college football spread picks. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

For this year's Thanksgiving games, the model has locked in four NFL and college football best bets. If you successfully parlay the picks, you'd be looking at a payout of around 12-1. You can only see the model's top picks at SportsLine. 

Top football picks for Thanksgiving

The model, which ran 10,000 simulations on each of the three NFL games and the Egg Bowl in college football, likes the Packers (+7.5) to cover against the Lions. The Lions have lost six straight Thanksgiving games and have not won on the holiday since beating the Vikings in 2016. Detroit (8-2) is coming off a 31-26 victory over the 3-7 Bears in which the Lions needed to rally from a 12-point deficit with four minutes remaining in the game.

The Packers' Jordan Love has been an effective downfield passer this season. The former No. 26 overall pick leads the league this season in completions of 30 or more yards, with 18. On Thanksgiving, he faces a Detroit defense that is just middle-of-the-road against the pass, allowing 223.5 yards per game. See the model's top picks here.

How to make Thanksgiving football parlays

The model also locked in three other best bets for Thanksgiving Day NFL 2023. If the parlay hits, you're looking at an epic 12-1 payout. You can see the model's NFL and college football Thanksgiving best bets and parlay only at SportsLine.