NFL picks, 49ers vs. Chiefs odds, SGP, 2024 Super Bowl bets by top model: This eight-way parlay pays 147-1
The Super Bowl 58 spread opened at 49ers -1.5 and the latest NFL odds have San Francisco favored by two. Provided there are no dramatic shifts, the 2024 Super Bowl line is on pace to have one of the slimmest spreads in the history of the Big Game. Only six previous games had Super Bowl spreads under two points, with the favorite victorious in four of those. One of those came when these teams met in 2020, when the Chiefs (-1.5) prevailed in Super Bowl LIV.
This year, the Chiefs have covered in both of their games when the spread was PK to +3, while the Niners have covered in all three of their contests when the spread was PK to -3. So, if you don't want to include the spread in your Super Bowl parlay picks, you'd be forgiven, but which Super Bowl 58 predictions could go into a winning parlay? Before you make any Super Bowl picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the conference championship round of the 2024 NFL playoffs on an incredible 184-129 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It also is on a 38-21 roll on top-rated picks since Week 7 of last season and nailed seven straight top-rated picks entering the 2024 NFL playoffs.
The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in eight confident NFL best bets for Super Bowl 58. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 147-1. You can only see the model's Super Bowl NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Super Bowl NFL picks
After simulating Super Bowl 58 10,000 times, the model predicts that Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce finishes over 70.5 receiving yards for a -115 payout. One only has to look at Kelce's success over his last dozen playoff games to see why the model is so convincingly behind the Over. Kelce has gone over 70.5 receiving yards in each of his last 12 postseason games, a streak which includes two Super Bowls.
He's averaged 87.3 receiving yards through three postseason games this year, and that's in line with his career playoff average of 86.2 yards per game. The model has San Francisco's No. 3 run defense containing the ground game, as Isiah Pacheco fails to top 4.0 yards per carry, and that will inevitably force Kansas City to lean more on the pass. Detroit's Sam LaPorta went off for 97 receiving yards in the NFC Title Game against the Niners, and the Chiefs' coaches are well aware of that. Kelce is in a class of his own amongst tight ends, and he's projected to finish with 77 receiving yards, giving value to the Over. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Super Bowl NFL parlays
The model also jumped on seven other NFL picks where it says the line is way off, including one side of the total that hits over 60% of the time. You can only see the model's NFL Super Bowl bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model's top NFL Super Bowl picks? And which other NFL bets should you target for a payout that could be in the triple-digits? Visit SportsLine now to see the Super Bowl 58 best bets from a model on a 184-129 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.
