Week 1 NFL picks, odds, 2023 best bets from proven model: This 5-way football parlay would pay out 25-1
The 2023 NFL season promises to be another thriller. The first NFL Sunday takes place on September 10, with eight games scheduled for the early window, five in the late window and Giants vs. Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. The week will wrap up with Bills vs. Jets on Monday Night Football as Aaron Rodgers makes his New York debut after 18 seasons with the Packers. Buffalo is a 2.5-point favorite in MetLife Stadium according to the latest Week 1 NFL odds, while the SportsLine Consensus also lists the Cowboys as 3.5-point favorites over the Giants on the road in the NFL spreads.
Other notable games on the Week 1 NFL schedule include the Bears (-2) at home against the Packers and the Browns (+2) hosting the Bengals in divisional-rivalry matchups. Which teams should you back as you place your Week 1 NFL bets and who should you lock into your Week 1 NFL parlays? Before you make any Week 1 NFL picks or NFL parlays, be sure to see the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season on an incredible 163-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 17-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.
The model ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has locked in five confident NFL best bets for Week 1. If you successfully parlay its picks, you'd be looking at a massive payout of around 25-1. You can only see the model's Week 1 NFL picks at SportsLine.
Top Week 1 NFL picks
After simulating every game 10,000 times, the model is high on the San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) to cover on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers. These were two of the hottest teams in the NFL late last season, with San Francisco going on a 12-game winning streak that didn't end until the 2023 NFC Championship Game and Pittsburgh winning six of its final seven regular-season games but falling just short of making the playoffs.
However, there's more optimism surrounding the 49ers because of the general quality of their roster and their second-year quarterback Brock Purdy appears in line to start Week 1. Purdy was the last player selected in the 2022 NFL Draft, while Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett was the first QB off the board in that class. However, Purdy looks like the more polished passer.
Purdy won all five of his regular-season starts while completing 67.1% of his passes and averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt with 13 touchdowns and four interceptions. Meanwhile, Pickett completed only 63.0% of his passes and averaged only 6.2 yards per pass attempt with seven touchdowns against nine interceptions. The model predicts Purdy wins the Week 1 QB battle with San Francisco covering the spread in well over 50% of simulations. See which other NFL parlay picks to make here.
How to make Week 1 NFL parlays
The model also jumped on four other NFL matchups where it says the line is way off, including a pair of underdogs that have a chance to win outright. You can only see the model's NFL Week 1 best bets and parlay at SportsLine.
What are the model's top Week 1 NFL picks? And which other NFL matchups should you target for a strong 25-1 payout? Visit SportsLine now to see the Week 1 NFL best bets from a model on a 163-113 run on its top-rated picks, and find out.
