NASCAR Food City 500 best bets: Back a strong day from Toyota cars

While last week’s NASCAR race from Phoenix was the smallest track we’d been on this season, the first true short track race takes place Sunday from Bristol Motor Speedway with the Food City 500. Here are my best bets for the fifth race of the 2024 season on FanDuel.

At Daytona and Atlanta, Toyota were the biggest underdog of any team due to fielding lesser cars than Ford and Chevrolet. But after dominating at Phoenix and leading most of the laps, Toyota showed their new body intended to better at shot tracks could do just that.

Ty Gibbs, Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr. and race winner Christopher Bell were the best cars all day at Phoenix. Bell and Denny Hamlin winning at Bristol last year also serve as confidence boosters for this pick.

Last week I predicted Bell would get a top three finish. This week, I’m pegging Gibbs to do the same and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him one up this prediction like Bell did. Gibbs led 102 laps last year in the Fall race and was one of the best cars at Phoenix last week.

Gibbs has been fast more often than not in his young career, but he hasn’t gotten over the hump. Bristol is one of the six tracks he’s scored a top five in, and I think the 21 year old could be in for a breakthrough moment and potentially his first win.

NASCAR’s most recognizable driver has just one top ten through four races. Since shifting away from drafting style racing, he’s finished eighth and 11th. While he didn’t score a top ten at Phoenix, he led 68 laps and had the poll position.

Bristol is one of Hamlin’s better tracks. It’s where he leads the third most laps of any circuit, and it’s a track that’s brought him ten top five finishes (And three wins) in 33 races.

I want to preface by saying this is a high risk high reward pick. Chase Briscoe hasn’t lived up to his potential yet as Tony Stewart’s replacement, but he’s started top ten three times this year and has two top tens at Daytona and Phoenix.

Not only that, but Briscoe finished fifth last year in April’s race. The short run speed has been there for Briscoe this year, but his long speed is what costs him. If a late race caution comes out, that could be the recipe Briscoe needs to get a top ten.

Toyota: I already talked about why I like Ty Gibbs (+1300) to have a strong race and finish in the top three at least. GIbbs will be racing his 52nd cup start Sunday, and it feels like the time is now for him.

Chevy: I thought about William Byron here (+1200), but I had to go with Kyle Larson (+450) who finished second in last year’s Fall race and has an average finish of 2.7 in his last three Bristol starts.

Ford: Outside of Ryan Blaney (+1200), Ford has struggled this season. But I like Chris Buescher the most (+1400), as he’s been quietly performing well minus Las Vegas as evident by his second place finish last week.

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