2023 Valspar Championship picks, odds, field: Surprising PGA predictions from model that nailed 8 majors

With a chance to become the first three-peat champion on the PGA Tour since Steve Stricker at the John Deere Classic from 2009-2011, Sam Burns will tee it up this week in the 2023 Valspar Championship. Burns will be one of four top-15 players in the Official World Golf Ranking scheduled to tee it up this week on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. No. 10 Justin Thomas, No. 13 Matthew Fitzpatrick and No. 14 Jordan Spieth will also be in the 2023 Valspar Championship field.

Thomas is the 10-1 favorite in the 2023 Valspar Championship odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while Spieth is listed at 12-1. Burns is listed at 15-1 in this week's PGA Tour odds, while Fitzpatrick comes in at 18-1. Keegan Bradley is currently fourth in the 2023 FedEx Cup standings and he's listed as the fifth favorite at 22-1. Before locking in your 2023 Valspar Championship picks, be sure to see the golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine's proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June of 2020. In fact, the model is up over $8,300 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure's model predicted Jon Rahm to finish on top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express and the Genesis Invitational. The model also included J.T. Poston in its best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet hit at +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure's best bets returned almost $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure's model was all over Scottie Scheffler's first career major championship victory heading into the weekend.

In addition, McClure's best bets included Collin Morikawa winning outright at the 2021 Open Championship, even though he was listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also all over Rahm's (10-1) first career major championship victory at the 2021 U.S. Open. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner.

This same model has also nailed a whopping eight majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Valspar Championship field is locked, SportsLine simulated the tournament 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected leaderboard.

Top 2023 Valspar Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Valspar Championship 2023: Burns, the two-time defending champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and barely cracks the top 10. Burns got off to a fast start in 2023, finishing T-11 or better in two of his first three starts. 

However, Burns has struggled mightily in recent weeks, missing the cut in two of his last three starts and finishing T-35 at the Players Championship. Burns' recent struggles can be directly attributed to his iron play. The 26-year-old enters this week's event ranked 164th in greens in regulation percentage (64.37%) and 186th in strokes gained: approach to green (-.658). He also ranks 194th on the PGA Tour in approaches from inside 100 yards. He's not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the Valspar Championship 2023 field.

Another surprise: Justin Rose, a 27-1 longshot, makes a strong run at the title. Rose has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The 42-year-old Englishman is coming off a T-6 finish at the Players Championship after missing the cut in his previous two starts. Rose also ended a four-year winless drought with a win at the 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Classic last month.

Rose is currently ranked No. 32 in the Official World Golf Ranking and the former world No. 1 has experienced plenty of success at Innisbrook, with three top-10 finishes in his last six starts in the event. Rose is an 11-time PGA Tour winner and the 2013 U.S. Open champion, and that's the sort of experience that few can replicate in the 2023 Valspar Championship field. See who else to pick here. 

How to make 2023 Valspar Championship picks

The model is also targeting four other golfers with odds of 25-1 or longer who will make surprising runs. Anyone who backs these longshots could hit it big. You can only see the model's PGA picks here.

So who will win the Valspar Championship 2023? And which longshots stun the golfing world? Check out the 2023 Valspar Championship odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2023 Valspar Championship leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed eight golf majors, including last year's Masters.

2023 Valspar Championship odds, field

Justin Thomas +1000Jordan Spieth +1200Sam Burns +1500Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800Keegan Bradley +2200Tommy Fleetwood +2400Justin Rose +2700Adam Hadwin +2800Denny McCarthy +3000Davis Riley +3100Brian Harman +3100Justin Suh +3700Wyndham Clark +4000Ben Griffin +4100Brandon Wu +4100Gary Woodland +4100J.T. Poston +4200Maverick Mcnealy +4800Byeong Hun An +5000Jhonattan Vegas +5000Aaron Rai +5000Nate Lashley +5000Victor Perez +5000K.H. Lee +5000Taylor Moore +5000Joel Dahmen +5500Will Gordon +5500Stephan Jaeger +6500Ben Taylor +6500Trey Mullinax +6500Luke List +6500Ryan Gerard +6500Ben Martin +6500Tyler Duncan +6500Beau Hossler +6500Nick Taylor +6500Robby Shelton +6500Joseph Bramlett +8000Matthew NeSmith +8000Webb Simpson +8000Garrick Higgo +8000Lee Hodges +8000Alex Smalley +8000Akshay Bhatia +8000Ludvig Aberg +8000S.H. Kim +9500 Charley Hoffman +9500Eric Cole +9500Dylan Frittelli +10000Pierceson Coody +10000David Lingmerth +10000Troy Merritt +10000Kramer Hickok +11000Erik Van Rooyen +11000Russell Knox +11000Patrick Rodgers +11000Adam Schenk +11000Cameron Champ +11000David Lipsky +11000Greyson Sigg +11000Nick Hardy +12000Sam Ryder +12000Carson Young +12000Chad Ramey +12000Chesson Hadley +14000Mark Hubbard +14000Sam Stevens +14000Stewart Cink +14000Kevin Kisner +14000MJ Daffue +14000Nico Echavarria +15000Harry Higgs +16000Michael Kim +16000Adam Long +16000Kevin Tway +17000Matt Wallace +17000Martin Laird +17000Peter Malnati +17000Harry Hall +17000Carl Yuan +17000Luke Donald +19000Dylan Wu +19000Patton Kizzire +19000Matthias Schwab +21000Vincent Norrman +21000Ryan Moore +21000Kevin Streelman +21000Erik Barnes +21000Ryan Armour +21000Austin Cook +21000Doug Ghim +21000Brian Stuard +21000