Sky vs Aces Odds, Picks & Predictions

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13 September 2023

Despite a double-digit point spread, Kahleah Copper and Chicago should hold their own and keep things interesting when they take on the defending champs in Game 1 of the WNBA playoffs. Read more in our Sky vs. Aces betting picks.

After the longest regular season in WNBA history, the Las Vegas Aces true title defense starts now. The Aces followed up their dominant run last season with one of the best regular seasons of all time and looked primed to take on the New York Liberty in a blockbuster WNBA Finals.

However, their opponent on Wednesday will have something to say about that first. The Chicago Sky scraped and clawed their way into the playoffs despite a year featuring dramatic offseason and in-season turnover. The Sky boast a bevy of strong guards to go against the Aces, and they’ll be looking to pull off the WNBA odds upset as they head to Nevada for Game 1.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Game 1 of Sky vs. Aces believe the Sky have the defensive formula to keep things interesting against Las Vegas.

Sky vs Aces best Game 1 odds

Sky vs Aces Game 1 picks and predictions

The 2023 WNBA playoffs are officially here, and while it’s no surprise to see that the defending champion Las Vegas Aces are once again in pole position to win the whole thing, more surprising is their opponent for Game 1 on Wednesday.

The Chicago Sky have had a truly bizarre season. They lost nearly every player from their 2021 championship core save Kahleah Copper, and their head coach and GM resigned mid-season to join the Toronto Raptors staff. They floundered early before discovering a new form late in the season, and a combination of defensive versatility and better offensive principles has propelled them into the playoffs.

Their combination of guard play and a willingness to experiment on defense is why I believe that they’ll be able to keep things more or less respectable as they square off against the league’s best team today.

The Sky and Aces played three times this season, largely spread out evenly over the course of the series. The final scores of those games (80-93, 107-92, and 94-8) all favored Las Vegas but were all within today’s predicted spread. Indeed, it’s interesting to note that while the Aces' offense unsurprisingly experienced its biggest dropoff in their series of games against the New York Liberty, the second biggest decline came against Chicago.

Of course, two of these three games came at home, where the Aces posted a merely incredible +8.9 net rating on the season compared to their patently absurd +21.9 net rating at home. Sky closed with a -2.1 net rating, with an average offense and a slightly below-average defense. However, that doesn’t tell the whole story.

These gaps all narrowed over the last month of the season. The Sky posted a positive net rating of 1.3 in that span, while the Aces dropped to +11.9. A road-heavy and difficult closing schedule contributed a lot of that for Vegas, as did the loss of Candace Parker. Furthermore, the Sky turned into road warriors in the last month, posting a +6.4 net rating away from Wintrust Arena.

Chicago has strong perimeter players who can match up with the Aces' cadre of All-Star guards. They’re also comfortable switching, hard hedging or trapping, and playing zone. They’ll often mix up multiple coverages within the same play. Early on, the Sky played zone largely out of desperation, but now they play it more from a position of strength as Elizabeth Williams does a solid job directing traffic from around the rim.

The Aces relied on transition scoring to routinely punish Chicago during the regular season, but I’m betting that increased emphasis on the scouting report and playoff intensity limits that avenue for Las Vegas. While I don’t expect an upset, I do think the Sky should keep this one interesting.

My best bet: Sky +16.5 (-121 at BetVictor)

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Sky vs Aces Game 1 spread and Over/Under analysis

The spread for Game 1 between the Sky and the Aces opened between -16 and -16.5 in favor of Las Vegas. That has narrowed slightly at most sportsbooks to as close as -15.5.

The Sky’s recent success on the road has translated to significant success against the spread. They’re 4-0 against the spread in their last four road games, as well as 7-1 ATS in their last eight overall. By contrast, the Aces were just 2-7 ATS in their last nine regular season games.

The total for Wednesday’s tilt opened at 169.5 and has been steadily rising and is available as high as 171.5 at the time of writing. There’s certainly reason to think these two could end up in a shootout, as while neither team emphasizes scoring in the paint, they both have a plethora of good to great shooters at the guard positions.

The Sky have been vulnerable to transition basketball, giving up the most fast break points of any team in the W over the last month. That issue showed itself over and over again when these teams played on August 24, as time after time when the Sky were celebrating a made basket, A’ja Wilson was already getting downhill into the paint off a hit ahead pass by Chelsea Gray. It’s certainly possible that this continues on Wednesday, but I’d expect the Sky to be better prepared as well.

When teams are rested to this degree, their best forms often take hold and it reveals what they truly care to emphasize. In the Aces' case, its offense has contributed to the Over going 6-1 in their last seven games when playing on two days of rest. The Sky trend the other way, as the Under has gone 10-4 in their last 14 games when factoring in 48 hours of downtime.

The Aces concede a lot of opponent threes by design and shift opponent shots to the midrange, but the Sky have numerous willing shooters that can make it rain at any time. If Marina Mabrey or Copper put together a strong shooting night, this line could easily go over.