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Steve Palmer's The American Express predictions & free golf betting tips

Racing Post

16 January 2024

Steve Palmer's The American Express predictions & free golf betting tips

When to bet on The American Express

It's also worth noting that Betfred are offering £40 in bonuses when new customers bet on golf

Where can I watch The American Express

Live on Sky Sports Golf from 9pm on Thursday

Steve Palmer's The American Express predictions

Sungjae Im
3pts each-way 20-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Eric Cole
2pts each-way 35-1 bet365

JT Poston
2pts each-way 28-1 general

Andrew Putnam
1.5pts each-way 60-1 bet365

Davis Thompson
1pt each-way 75-1 BoyleSports

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Steve Palmer's The American Express preview

For the second time this year, LIV defector Jon Rahm is an absent champion on the PGA Tour, so a new name will end up on The American Express trophy on Sunday night.

Scottie Scheffler tops the market, but the world number one finished 45th of 59 runners in the Sentry putting statistics last time out, denting some of the flat-stick confidence he generated at the Hero World Challenge. The straightforward tee-to-green test of the AmEx does not suit the favourite.

Steve Palmer's top tip

Sungjae Im 20-1

A scoring record which has been in place since 2001 was broken by Sungjae Im in his last tournament and the classy Korean looks set to play a significant role in The American Express.

Im carded 34 birdies at The Sentry the week before last, bettering the previous record for total birdies in a 72-hole PGA Tour event by two shots. Nine birdies in round one were followed by eight on the Friday, six on Saturday and 11 on the Sunday.

The AmEx is a tournament in which cramming as many birdies as possible on your scorecard is the key to success – low scoring is essential on easy tracks – and Im seems better equipped than anyone for that task.

The 25-year-old, a two-time PGA Tour champion, ended last season strongly, with sixth spot in the FedEx St Jude Championship followed by seventh in the BMW Championship, second in a Korean Tour event and 12th in the Zozo Championship. Racing out the 2024 blocks with fifth spot in The Sentry could set Im up for a great campaign.

The Presidents Cup star skipped last week's Sony Open to freshen up for the West Coast Swing. Solid AmEx form-figures of 12-10-12-11-18 should be bolstered. He showcased excellent approach-play and superb putting at The Sentry – the perfect combination for AmEx success.

Next best bet

Eric Cole 35-1

Only one of the last 16 winners of the AmEx were making their first start of the year, so getting Christmas rust out of the system in Hawaii seems almost essential for AmEx success. Eric Cole has already competed twice this year.

The PGA Tour Rookie of the Year was 14th on his Sentry debut the week before last, closing with a 65, then last week he finished 13th in the Sony Open, going ten under par over the weekend. The Hawaii Swing was an ideal warm-up for an AmEx which suits him well.

Cole's form figures over the last four months have been ultra-consistent, with four top-fives and six top-15s in his last seven starts, and a PGA Tour breakthrough seems only a matter of time. He finished 36th on his AmEx debut last year when ranked 370th in the world. This short-game master has returned as world number 38.

Other selections

JT Poston 28-1
Andrew Putnam 60-1
Davis Thompson 75-1

Like Cole, JT Poston is well in a groove, having finished fifth in The Sentry and sixth in the Sony. He closed with a 65 in The Sentry and a 61 in the Sony, so the rest of the AmEx field could be in trouble if The Postman wakes up earlier this week.

Poston has always been an exceptional putter and will be more than comfortable reaching the super-low total which will be required to win the AmEx. He was seventh in this event in 2019 – when still a Tour maiden – and he has won two titles since. He was sixth in the AmEx last year and may take some inspiration from Grayson Murray's Sony success. They are both both from North Carolina and competed alongside each other growing up.

Complete your staking plan with Andrew Putnam and Davis Thompson. Putnam is another who is teeing up in his third tournament of the year. He was slow from the gates in The Sentry, but got better every day, closing with rounds of 67 and 64, then signed off with a 64 for tenth place in the Sony.

The AmEx layouts sets up perfectly for Putnam – he is accurate and typically putts well – and a second PGA Tour title is entirely feasible for a man who went to college in California.

Thompson was an unlucky AmEx runner-up last year, losing a tight duel with Rahm by a shot, suffering when a long birdie putt at the 71st hole was repelled by the flagstick. Thompson, a former world number one amateur, may go one better this week.

The 24-year-old finished 57th on his 2024 debut last week – a good recovery after an opening 73 – and a better four-round performance can be expected in the Golden State.

Course guide for The American Express

Courses Pete Dye Stadium Course at PGA West, Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West, La Quinta Country Club, La Quinta, California
Prize money $8.4m ($1.44m to the winner)
Lengths Stadium 7,187 yards, Nicklaus 7,147 yards, La Quinta 7,060 yards
Par All 72
Field 156 The cut Top 65 and ties qualify for round four
Highest-ranked players in field (world ranking in brackets) Scottie Scheffler (1), Xander Schauffele (5), Patrick Cantlay (6), Wyndham Clark (10), Tom Kim (14)
Course records - 18 holes TPC Stadium Course 61 Patrick Cantlay (2021); Nicklaus Tournament Course 59 Harrison Frazar (2008 Q School); La Quinta 59 Adam Hadwin (2017)
Course winners taking part (in PGA Tour events featuring TPC Stadium Course at PGA West) Jason Dufner, Adam Long, Andrew Landry, Si Woo Kim
When to bet By 4.30pm on Thursday
When to watch Live on Sky Sports Golf from 9pm on Thursday
Time difference California is eight hours behind the UK and Ireland
Last week – Sony Open 1 G Murray (400-1), T2 B H An (35-1), K Bradley (55-1), T4 C Yuan (300-1), R Henley (20-1), 6 JT Poston (30-1), T7 N Taylor (70-1), E Grillo (75-1), M Pavon (150-1), T10 A Putnam (45-1), H English (40-1), T Pendrith (125-1)
Course type Desert
Course overview Various layouts have been used for this multi-course pro-am through the years, which was previously the Bob Hope Classic, Humana Challenge, CareerBuilder Challenge and Desert Classic. The Stadium Course returned after a 29-year absence to act as host in 2016, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course made its debut, joining La Quinta CC for a three-course event. The same rota has been used every year since (apart from 2021 – for which La Quinta took a year off) with one round played at each of the tracks over the first three days, and the cut-makers gathering at the Stadium Course on Sunday. The Stadium Course, designed by Pete Dye, is full of deep bunkers and water, and has similarities to the TPC Sawgrass. It usually plays harder than the Nicklaus Tournament Course, with La Quinta the easiest of the trio. The Stadium Course and the Nicklaus Tournament Course were both used for the Tour Qualifying School Finals in 2002, 2006 and 2008
Story of last year Jon Rahm edged Davis Thompson by a shot in a tight Sunday battle
Weather forecast Clear and calm throughout, with cool mornings replaced by pleasant afternoons
Type of player suited to the challenge A hot putter seems almost essential in this event, with the courses set up to with hardly any rough to allow the amateurs to get round, encouraging low scoring
Key attribute Touch/putting

Steve Palmer's The American Express key stat

Only one of the last 16 winners of this event was making his first start of the year

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