The American Express 2023 Golf Tournament: PGA expert betting predictions and three top 20 winning picks for the Desert Classic

Celebrity golf takes center stage this week with the LPGA in Orlando starting their season with the Hilton Grand Vacations Tournament of Champions Pro-Am and the PGA Tour playing The American Express in LaQuinta, California. The annual trek to the desert from Hollywood, known by man as the 'Desert Classic,' used to be hosted by Bob Hope. Well, “hope” is the modern theme of this four-day shootout.

The average winner’s odds over the last five years is +21500 (215-1). Looking back over the last ten years, it drops to +14300 (143-1).

This isn’t an easy tournament to win considering the average champion’s card over the past decade reads 24 under par. Yet the storyline remains, as Palm Springs delivers new life to young and old careers. Last year’s winner was Hudson Swafford. Before he left to join LIV, Swafford captured his final PGA tour title after starting the week at +20000 (200-1).

Today we will provide you with The American Express 2023 betting odds, an overview of the courses and tournament, and our betting and placement predictions for this famed event. 

All odds are from BetMGM.

The American Express 2023: Odds to win

The American Express 2023: Course and tournament overview

LaQuinta Country Club, the Nicklaus Tournament Course and PGA West’s Stadium Course are all amongst the easiest to play on the tour annually. Consider these scoring statistics:

• 42 of the 54 holes have a birdie rate over 15%. (That’s nearly 80%.)
• 19 of the 54 (35%) have a birdie rate over 25%!
• The Nicklaus Tournament Course has 17 holes with a birdie rate over 15%. Looks like Jack was in a good mood when he designed that one in 1987.

Part of the reason why these courses yield so many low scores are the length and conditions.

• 16 of the par-4’s measure under 425 yards across the three courses.
• Nine of the 12 par-5’s do not stretch past 550 yards.

The 262 bunkers and 19 holes where water comes into play aren’t enough of a defense against the best in the world. Speaking of which, we will be looking at a very strong field considering this week is not “designated” with a $20 million dollar purse.

The field of 156 will be competing for $8 million instead, with $1.44 million going to first place. All competitors will play each of the three courses over the first 54 holes with their Pro-Am partner followed by a cut to the low 70 and ties. Those who make the cut play the Stadium Course on Sunday for the title.

• Five of the top 10 players in the world are here, alongside 11 of the top 25.

The American Express 2023: Tendencies of contenders

After looking at tendencies, this tournament demands a specific game plan from contenders. Researching the past decade, each of the past 10 winners gained strokes on the greens against the field (average 3.0 strokes). Who leads the field in Strokes Gained Putting (SG:Putt)? Harry Hall, Andrew Putnam, and Taylor Montgomery are at the top of the flat-stick list.

The second winning theme showed up on approach. Nine of the past 10 winners gained positive strokes attacking the greens (average 2.8 strokes). In fact, in that time, on average the top nine finishers gained strokes on approach against the field. That’s a pretty powerful correlation. Strokes Gained: Approach is built on proximity to the hole and creating birdie opportunities inside 15 feet. We all know Tom Hoge is the best approach player on tour, but who follows him? Tom Kim, Russell Knox, and Si Woo Kim (last week’s winner) lead the list alongside him.

Combine great approach play and finesse with the flat-stick and these three are the best combinations in the field: Tony Finau, Andrew Putnam, and Ben Taylor. With so many moving parts, this tournament can be difficult to predict. At times, the outright market isn’t always the sharpest bet. This week, I’m going to change our strategy and predict three placements.

I believe they will give us the best chance for a clean sweep and opportunity to build that bankroll for the Farmers Insurance Open next weekend!

The American Express 2023: Three best bets to place in the top 20

Will Zalatoris (+100), Cam Young (+120), Si Woo Kim (+190)

We already mentioned Si Woo Kim. He’s the winner last week and champion of this event in 2021. Will Zalatoris is an approach machine, and his ability to make birdies has him ranked second in the field for Birdie or Better percentage. Cam Young can drive the ball, and that advantage will increase his proximity to the hole with a great wedge game. All three have the approach aptitude and putting pedigree to get it done. Take the positive odds on these placements.

For a complete list of my betting predictions covering winners, placements, H2H matchups, One and Done picks, and DFS recommendations please go to Read The Line and subscribe.

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