2024 Players Championship odds, picks, sleepers: Scheffler aims for history, Max Homa among best bets

The PGA Tour heads to Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida, for the 50th anniversary of The Players Championship — golf’s “fifth major” — on a course that can stymie even the best game.

Only six players have won at TPC Sawgrass more than once, none more than twice, and debutants have clinched a win on only two occasions, most recently Craig Perks in 2002. No player has ever defended their win in the following calendar year.

Until this year?

Scottie Scheffler is the returning champion and is coming off a dominant win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He gained more than 16 strokes on the field last week while gaining more than 5 strokes off the tee and an amazing 4.3 strokes on the greens. Scheffler finally caved and gave the mallet putter another try, and he seemed to have found some magic. Rory McIlroy may be the least popular player in the locker room right now after talking Scheffler into changing putters.

TPC Sawgrass is a difficult golf course for anyone to master. Players need to be accurate off the tee to avoid long roughs and follow a game plan to attack smaller greens that are firmer than the average golf course on the PGA Tour. Short games will be tested with firm, fast greens and strategic mounds. With Atlantic coast weather in spring bringing wind and rain, the players must be wary of club selection when water is in play.

Pete Dye designed this jewel in the PGA Tour’s crown on swamp land that Deane Beman and the PGA Tour purchased in 1978 for $1. The golf course opened in 1980 and has been a challenge for the best of the best on the PGA Tour ever since.

My model this week will weigh driving accuracy a little more than usual. I will also weigh Pete Dye-designed courses and TPC Sawgrass results a little heavier than I usually do. Some players may be hurt by this, with players like Harris English missing a bunch of cuts here, but recent success should give a bump in my final results. The pricing this week is very interesting, with players priced as low as $5,000 on DraftKings, so building lineups should be a lot of fun.

2024 Players Championship Details

Course: TPC Sawgrass — Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla.

Designed by: Pete Dye

Par: 72

Yardage: 7,275 yards

Average green size: 5,500 square feet

Features: Grass is Tif Bermuda overseeded with Celebration Bermuda. The rough can reach four inches in spots, and water will come into play throughout the golf course.

Past champions: Scottie Scheffler 2023, Cameron Smith 2022, Justin Thomas 2021, Rory McIlroy 2019, Webb Simpson 2018, Si Woo Kim 2017, Jason Day 2016, and Rickie Fowler 2015.

Scoring: No one has won The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass more than twice. (Jack Nicklaus won The Players three times, but none were at TPC Sawgrass.) The tournament scoring record is 264.

Odds from BetMGM.

Betting Slip

Max Homa +2800 finished T8 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational despite not driving the ball well on Sunday. His ball striking hasn’t been as dominant as it was in the fall, but I like that he gained over 1.6 strokes on approach on Sunday and seemed to find a rhythm. His around-the-green game and putting have been top-notch, so if he can be closer to his best with the ball striking, we are getting him at a very nice number. He has finished 13th and 6th here in the last two years with nice Sunday finishes.

Sam Burns +4000 blew up in his fourth round at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with two triple bogies, but his play Thursday through Saturday excited me to look up his price for this week. His putter has been his greatest weapon lately, and he has figured out how to play TPC Sawgrass the last few years with two straight top-35 finishes.

Shane Lowry +4000 backed up his fourth-place finish at the Cognizant Classic with a steady third-place finish at the Arnold Palmer. Lowry is striking the ball better than he has in a long time, as he has gained over 10 strokes combined on approach in his last two starts. I like the way he is plotting his way around the golf courses as well.

Sleepers

Min Woo Lee +5500 struggled with his putter at the Arnold Palmer, but I’m not too worried. He gained more than 2.5 strokes on approach for the week, which was important for him to build on his success with his irons at the Cognizant Classic. He finished T6 here last year on his first try.

Doug Ghim +11000 didn’t qualify for the Arnold Palmer but was on fire before last week. He has four straight top-16 finishes and has gained 2.3 or more strokes on approach in each of those tournaments. He has had some success here, with a sixth-place finish in 2022.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $12,800 finally got the putter going with a little help from Rory McIlroy. Scheffler gained more than 4.3 strokes on the greens with his new mallet putter and will be looking to be the first player to defend a Players Championship win. The second-best player on the PGA Tour is closer (Rory McIlroy) to the 20th-best player than he is to Scheffler when it comes to ball striking this year. I’m guessing at that stat but I bet I’m not far off. (Editor’s Note: We looked this up, and it is true using the last 60 rounds.) With so many low-priced values this week, you have to play Scheffler pretty heavily.

Justin Thomas $10,600 shook off the aberration that was his performance at the Genesis Invitational. He finished T12 at the Arnold Palmer but looked a lot better than that for most of the tournament. He gained more than 2.5 strokes on approach and putted well again. I’m not sure how much I will use Thomas, but in the 11K to mid 10K range, he will be my first choice.

Viktor Hovland $10,100 is back to struggling around the green after making great strides in 2023. I’m not sure if he is nursing an injury or if an old injury led to his backslide. He has lost over 1.7 strokes around the green in three straight. I want to be on Hovland at this price, but it’s tough to play him too much with his current form.

Will Zalatoris $9,900 looked like he was on his way to his first win since his back surgery until he stumbled on the back nine on Saturday at Bay Hill. He bounced back with a solid round on Sunday and finished T4 to build on his great run of form. When healthy, he has played well here without contending on Sundays, but no reason that won’t change this week.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,800 has two top-eight finishes here in his last three tries and comes into this week in excellent form. He backed up his win at the Genesis Invitational by finishing T12 at Bay Hill. He gained more than 3 strokes on approach and putted well.

Max Homa $9,600 See above.

Sam Burns $9,200 See above.

Shane Lowry $9,100 See above.

Sahith Theegala $8,700 is driving the ball really well, gaining over 2.6 strokes off the tee in two out of his last three tournaments. He has gained over 1.5 strokes with his short game in four straight tournaments. His iron play has been inconsistent, and he has struggled here with a missed cut and 74th-place finish, but we can’t ignore his current form.

Tony Finau $8,500 didn’t play the Arnold Palmer Invitational and instead teed it up at the Seminole Pro-Member last week. I found that decision a little odd, but I’m sure he had his reasons. He hasn’t had the best luck here, but this price stands out as a value in my model. He has gained over 3.1 strokes on approach in four straight and just needs to right the ship with his putter.

Corey Conners $8,300 has long been one of my favorite plays here with how good he is off the tee and with his irons, but he continues to struggle around and on the greens. He gained over 6 strokes on approach at Bay Hill after gaining over 3.5 strokes in each of his previous two tournaments. He has lost 1.3 or more strokes with his putter in nine of his last 10 tournaments. I can’t pay this price for him this week even though I think one day he will put it all together here. I’m going to sprinkle him in some GPPs instead.

Byeong Hun An $8,100 gained strokes across the board last week at Bay Hill on his way to a T8 finish. He has gained over 3.2 strokes off the tee in two straight and he has gained over 3.6 strokes ball striking in three straight tournaments. Min Woo Lee should soak up a lot of the ownership that An would garner if he wasn’t priced so close to Lee.

Min Woo Lee $8,000 See above.

Si Woo Kim $8,000 won here in 2016 and is playing well from tee to green right now. He lost over 8 strokes on the green at Bay Hill and still finished with a top-30 finish. Kim has gained strokes off the tee in every tournament since early August 2023. He has made eight straight cuts despite losing strokes with the putter in seven out of eight of them. He’s a nice pivot from An and Lee with the thought of not going too heavy with his current struggles with the putter.

Brian Harman $7,900 has made four straight cuts here with two top-eight finishes in 2019 and 2021. He has struggled a bit with consistency this year but looked good at Bay Hill gaining over 5.5 strokes on approach.

Harris English $7,800 hasn’t made a cut here in the last five years, but his current form and the way his game fits in the model are tough to ignore. He has gained strokes off the tee in seven out of his last nine tournaments and he would be priced higher if he didn’t struggle on Sunday at Bay Hill.

Tom Hoge $7,800 has a very good course history here, with four straight top-33 finishes, including a third-place finish last year. He has gained 3.7 or more strokes on approach in five straight tournaments.

Adam Scott $7,600 missed the cut last week as a highly owned option and may be overlooked this week because of it. He wasn’t as dominant off the tee or on approach so his lackluster around-the-green game caught up to him. I believe he will bounce back this week and he will be in play among the others priced close by.

Adam Hadwin $7,500 has two straight top-13 finishes here and comes into this week in decent ball-striking form. He has gained strokes on approach in five out of his last six tournaments, and he has gained off the tee in two straight. He has two top-six finishes in the calendar year already.

Keith Mitchell $7,500 has made the cut here in four out of his last five tries with his best finish being a 13th in 2022. He has three straight top-19 finishes and he has gained over 10 strokes combined off the tee in those tournaments. He gained over 8 strokes on approach in Mexico, but he forgot to pack his short game for that particular tournament.

Emiliano Grillo $7,400 hasn’t made a cut here since 2019, but he’s playing too well right now to ignore. He has gained strokes off the tee in five straight tournaments and he has gained strokes on approach in five out of his last seven tournaments. He will lose some strokes around the green, but he has made up for it with his putter as he has gained consistently on the greens since The Sentry in January.

Erik van Rooyen $7,300 continues to build on his solid resume in 2024. He followed up his T2 at the Cognizant Classic with a solid T25 at the Arnold Palmer. He has gained on approach in six out of his last seven tournaments and finally gained some strokes around the green at Bay Hill. He finished T13 here in 2022.

Nick Taylor $6,900 has gained strokes on approach in six straight and around the green in three straight. He has made the cut here in three out of his last four tries, with his best showing a T16. He seems priced too low to ignore this week.

Doug Ghim $6,800 See above.

Low-Priced Options

If you want more information on these players, drop a note in the comments and I’ll fill you in. 

Matthieu Pavon $6,700

Billy Horschel $6,600

Austin Eckroat $6,500

Brendon Todd $6,500

Aaron Rai $6,400

Andrew Novak $6,400

Chan Kim $5,800

Robert MacIntyre $5,600

Ben Silverman $5,500

Carson Young $5,500

Nico Echavarria $5,400

One and Done

Each week, we will pick in reverse order of the standings, and we can’t duplicate picks in the same week. Reference this spreadsheet tracking who we have used.

Standings

Hugh Kellenberger: $2,488,190.80Dennis Esser: $1,591,517

Brody Miller: $874,132.83

Brody Miller: It’s time to use the golden pick. Normally one wants to be selective with picking somebody after a win, but considering the improvements to Scottie Scheffler’s putting (even if a small sample size) and the fact he dominated Sawgrass last year, Scheffler is such a strong favorite that there might not be a better time to take him. I don’t want to save him for the majors when LIV guys playing only adds top competition. I’ll call my shot. Scottie defends and wins by two.

Dennis Esser: Rory McIlroy gave me some hope when he drove the par-4 10th green on Saturday and rallied his way into contention by making huge putts from off the green. He then killed all of that momentum by playing the front side on Sunday with more squares on his scorecard than I have after hitting the bottomless bloody mary bar. I went back and forth this week with Shane Lowry and Max Homa and can make a good case for either. In the end, I decided to take Max Homa and hope he can build on the iron play he showed on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Hugh Kellenberger: Ludvig Åberg has continued to impress in his first full year on the PGA Tour, including a second-place finish at Pebble Beach and a top 20 at the Genesis Invitational. He’s so good off the tee that I think he’ll find himself in the right places at TPC Sawgrass to attack the greens and hunt birdies.