2024 Cognizant Classic picks, predictions: Three long-shot bets

Here’s all you need to know about how bizarre the PGA Tour season has been so far.

Jake Knapp, who won the Mexico Open in his ninth-career start on the main circuit, had the shortest pre-tournament odds of any winner in 2024.

He was also only the second winner- the other was Hideki Matsuyama, who was +8000 at the Genesis Invitational, which went off at under +10000.

It’s been a kooky year on the Tour, and it figures to only get nuttier as we head to one of the toughest courses on the circuit, PGA National.

A brutally tough course, PGA National has trouble at basically every turn, and the finishing stretch is aptly named “the bear trap.”

Throw in some funky weather, and this weekend sets up to be a cracker for those who like to have a flutter.

The field for the Cognizant Classic (which was formerly known as the Honda Classic) is headlined by Rory McIlroy at +700, but the Northern Irishman is the only player with odds shorter than +2000.

Cameron Young (+2200), Russell Henley (+2500), Eric Cole (+2500), Tom Kim (+2800), Min Woo Lee (+2800) and Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800) are the only other players under +3000.

Historically, this has been a happy hunting ground for long shots, so let’s see if we can’t get (really) lucky this week.

This is the kind of setup where you want to consider playing C.T. Pan.

The Taiwanese is not gonna bomb the ball off the tee, but he’s certainly dangerous on courses that take the driver out of your hand.

Pan, who is a former winner on the PGA Tour, is coming off a T4 in Mexico and has three top-20 finishes in six starts at PGA National, including a third-place showing in 2021. 

When you’re betting golfers this far down the board, you’re looking for faint signals that they can contend.

You’re not going to be able to make a slam-dunk case for any triple-digit long shot, but you can find hope.

The hope with Jhonnatan Vegas is that he can put last week’s pedestrian showing in Mexico behind him quickly and bounce back at a course where he’s had some success.

Vegas has played this event nine times and has some impressive finishes, including a fourth-place showing and a couple of other top-20s.

Additionally, the Venezuelan has only missed the cut once in his career on this extremely difficult course, which is damn impressive. 

PGA National is a place to get weird, so let’s really lean in with a sprinkle on Zach Johnson at +50000.

The U.S. Ryder Cup captain and two-time Major champion is well beyond his prime, but he’s got a couple of things going for him this week.

For one, he’s made back-to-back cuts and has a top-25 finish among his three outings this season.

Not much, but at least his form isn’t unplayable.

More important than that, though, is that ZJ has plenty of experience at PGA National, and two of his last three trips here ended with strong finishes.

Johnson came in eighth in 2022 and was 12th last year.

You don’t need to bomb the ball off the tee at this course; you just need to work your way around the track and avoid trouble. That works for Johnson.