2024 Cognizant Classic odds, picks, predictions, field: Proven expert fading Rory McIlroy at PGA National

Chris Kirk will try to successfully defend his title and win for the second time this year when he tees off at the 2024 Cognizant Classic beginning on Thursday at PGA National Resort in Palm Beach Gardens, Fla. Last year, Kirk beat Eric Cole in a playoff to win the tournament, then known as the Honda Classic. In the first tournament of the 2024 PGA Tour season, Kirk shot 29-under to win The Sentry in Hawaii for his sixth career PGA Tour victory. 

This week, Kirk is going off at +4000 to repeat according to the latest 2024 Cognizant Classic odds. World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is the overwhelming favorite at +700. Cameron Young (+2200), Russell Henley (+2500), Cole (+2500), Matt Fitzpatrick (+2800), Tom Kim (+2800) and Byeong Hun An (+2800) round out the top seven choices in the Cognizant Classic field. Before locking in any 2024 Cognizant Classic picks, make sure you see the PGA Tour predictions and best bets from golf betting and fantasy expert Sia Nejad.

Nejad specializes in betting and DFS in golf, among other sports. He's had incredible success in the outright and first-round leader markets and in betting head-to-head matchups. He also has been on fire with his head-to-head matchups since last year's Charles Schwab Challenge, going 32-18-1 and returning 10.70 units over that span. That's a $1,070 profit for $100 bettors since May 2023.

Nejad also nailed 75-1 longshot Wyndham Clark as the outright winner at the Wells Fargo Championship. In 2023, SportsLine debuted "The Early Wedge," and in the first three months of the show, he hit two first-round leaders and three outright winners.

Now, Nejad has focused his attention on the 2024 Cognizant Classic field and has locked in his best bets, top sleepers and favorites to avoid. See who they are at SportsLine.

Top 2024 Cognizant Classic expert picks

One surprise: Nejad is completely fading Rory McIlroy, even though he is the overwhelming favorite at +700. The four-time major winner has not played like vintage McIlroy in two PGA Tour starts so far this season. He ranks 173rd on tour in both strokes gained: approach to green (-0.868) and strokes gained: around the green (-0.564).

That helps explain why he is still looking for his first top-20 finish this season. He finished 66th at Pebble Beach and 24th at Riviera. "He is too short a number to back given his recent play," Nejad told SportsLine.

However, Nejad is high on the chances of Keith Mitchell, who's going off as a +3500 longshot. The 32-year-old has only one career PGA Tour win, the 2019 Cognizant Classic (then known as the Honda Classic), in 167 events played. He is coming off a 19th-place finish at the Mexico Open last week.

Mitchell always has had a reputation as an excellent ball striker, and his stats so far this season reflect that. He ranks seventh on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: off the tee (0.748) and 18th in strokes gained: total (1.086). "He won this tournament in 2019, was ninth in 2022, and has a game that is really coming around, particularly in the ball-striking department," Nejad said. See whom else to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2024 Cognizant Classic picks

Nejad has locked in his best bets for the 2024 Cognizant Classic and is backing several longshots, including one that is priced at more than 50-1. This player "is gaining strokes across all metrics in a big way" and is a longshot who could surprise. You can see Nejad's PGA Tour picks only at SportsLine.

So which players should you target or avoid for the 2024 Cognizant Classic, and which player in theCognizant Classic 2024 field could bring a huge payday at more than 50-1? Check out the odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Sia Nejad's top picks for the 2024 Cognizant Classic, all from the expert who is 32-18-1 on his last 51 head-to-head picks.

2024 Cognizant Classic odds, field

Rory McIlroy +700Cameron Young +2200Russell Henley +2500Eric Cole +2500Tom Kim +2800Byeong Hun An +2800Matt Fitzpatrick +2800Min Woo Lee +3000J.T. Poston +3000Daniel Berger +3500Corey Conners +3500Stephan Jaeger +3500Shane Lowry +3500Keith Mitchell +3500Chris Kirk +4000Sungjae Im +4000Sepp Straka +4000Adam Svensson +4000Beau Hossler +4500Rasmus Hojgaard +4500Luke List +4500Tom Hoge +5000Matthieu Pavon +5000Denny McCarthy +5000Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500Alex Noren +5500Justin Rose +5500Thorbjorn Olesen +6000Jake Knapp +6000Doug Ghim +6000Erik Van Rooyen +6500Brendon Todd +7000Rickie Fowler +7000Davis Thompson +7000Akshay Bhatia +7500Thomas Detry +8000Brandon Wu +8000Adam Schenk +8000Maverick McNealy +8000Mark Hubbard +8000Lucas Glover +8000Ryo Hisatsune +9000Ben Griffin +9000Ryan Fox +9000Matt Wallace +9000Taylor Pendrith +10000Austin Eckroat +10000Robert MacIntyre +10000Vincent Norrman +11000Chan Kim +11000Carson Young +11000C.T. Pan +11000Taylor Montgomery +11000Billy Horschel +11000Andrew Novak +11000Lee Hodges +11000Kevin Yu +11000Greyson Sigg +11000Gary Woodland +11000Chesson Hadley +13000Sami Valimaki +13000Sam Stevens +13000S.H. Kim +13000Ben Silverman +13000Alex Smalley +13000Michael Kim +13000Justin Lower +13000Chris Gotterup +15000Tyler Duncan +15000Cameron Champ +15000Nate Lashley +15000Max Greyserman +15000Matt Kuchar +15000K.H. Lee +15000Justin Suh +15000Dylan Wu +15000Sam Ryder +18000Alejandro Tosti +18000Nico Echavarria +18000Alexander Bjork +18000Jacob Bridgeman +18000Victor Perez +20000Chandler Phillips +20000Carl Yuan +20000Parker Coody +20000Bud Cauley +20000Ryan Palmer +20000Nick Hardy +20000Nick Dunlap +20000Matt NeSmith +20000Joseph Bramlett +20000Camilo Villegas +25000Scott Stallings +25000Ben Martin +25000Ben Kohles +25000Robby Shelton +25000Patton Kizzire +25000Nicholas Lindheim +25000Jorge Campillo +25000Joel Dahmen +25000Joe Highsmith +25000Jhonattan Vegas +25000Garrick Higgo +25000Chad Ramey +30000Callum Tarren +30000Aaron Baddeley +30000Matti Schmid +30000Lanto Griffin +30000Kevin Streelman +30000Jimmy Stanger +30000Harry Hall +30000Davis Riley +30000Zach Johnson +35000Zac Blair +35000Troy Merritt +35000Fred Biondi +35000Francesco Molinari +35000David Lipsky +40000Ryan Moore +40000Mac Meissner +40000Rico Hoey +40000Adrien Dumont De Chassart +40000Pierceson Coody +40000Peter Malnati +40000Paul Barjon +40000Patrick Fishburn +40000Padraig Harrington +40000Martin Laird +40000Hayden Buckley +40000Norman Xiong +50000Ben Taylor +80000Chase Johnson +100000Tyson Alexander +100000Michael Gligic +100000Chris Crawford +150000David Skinns +150000Brandt Snedeker +200000Jeff Overton +200000J.B. Holmes +200000Tyler Collet +250000Braden Shattuck +250000Ryan Brehm +250000Kevin Kisner +250000