2024 Formula 1 predictions: F1 betting tips & odds

The anticipated Verstappen title procession is not a great look for Formula 1 heading into their longest-ever season with the first of 24 races taking place in Bahrain this weekend, and it’s not great for motorsport punters.

Verstappen is no bigger than 1/7 with betting sites to win his fourth world title and is odds-on with bet365 to take the chequered flag in 17 or more races. Meanwhile, Red Bull are 1/6 for the constructors’ crown.

Unless you’ve got deep pockets, the outright markets without Verstappen and Red Bull are likely to be of more interest with plenty of intrigue as to who will be best of the rest.

Leclerc seeking pre-Hamilton Ferrari statement

Unquestionably the big driver news of the off-season was Lewis Hamilton’s announcement that he would be leaving Mercedes at the end of 2024 to join Ferrari.

Hamilton says the chance to drive for F1’s most iconic marque was too good to turn down and he'll move to the Scuderia hoping they can help him deliver a record-breaking eighth world title.

But what about this year? The Brit took the honour of being the best non-Red Bull racer in 2023 when finishing third in the drivers’ standings behind Verstappen and Sergio Perez.

He got more than expected out of a "diva" of a Mercedes car last term, although he couldn’t manage a race win, extending the longest drought of his career having gone 45 races without victory.

Ending that streak this year could prove tricky given Red Bull’s ominous form and the step forward taken by Hamilton’s future team, Ferrari. 

The Italians were very happy with how their car performed in testing with both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz far more optimistic heading into this season than they were 12 months ago.

The Scuderia look poised to get off the mark quicker than their rivals for the podium places in Mercedes and McLaren, with the latter admitting that we may not see the best of their car until later on in the year.

Aston Martin began 2023 as Red Bull’s nearest challengers as Fernando Alonso strung together a series of podium finishes before eventually fading away, but they don’t appear to have made as big a step forward as the rest for this season.

With so many races to come, there’s plenty of time for teams to develop their cars and the order behind Red Bull may chop and change.

But this feels like a big season for Ferrari, who have set themselves up for success having signed Leclerc to a long-term extension and poached Hamilton. 

They need to put down a marker in 2024, as does Leclerc, who has been the Scuderia’s clear number one driver for several seasons but now finds his spot in jeopardy with the shadow of Hamilton looming large behind him.

He’s been plagued by bad luck and poor car development the last two years, but put him behind the wheel of a competitive and reliable Ferrari, and Leclerc’s ceiling is as high as anyone’s on the grid.

There’s certainly more upside to Leclerc than Perez, who is the unconvincing favourite in the without Verstappen Drivers’ Championship market on gambling sites.

The Mexican was widely erratic last year in a car that crushed the competition. It’s tough to trust the Red Bull driver to stay on the coattails of Verstappen and lock up another one-two for the team.

Instead, preference goes to Leclerc to set the bar as a Ferrari driver ahead of Hamilton’s move and steal a win or two in another year of Verstappen domination.

Sainz may put Russell in the shade

Hamilton’s switch to Ferrari leaves Sainz looking for a new home after this year and there should be plenty of suitors for the consistent Spaniard. 

Sainz was the only non-Red Bull driver to win a race last year, taking the chequered flag in Singapore, and he had been on course for fourth place in the Drivers’ Championship before a disastrous last two races of the season.

It marred what had otherwise been a solid season for Sainz, who scored points in 17 out of 22 races and was regularly in the fight for a top-six finish.

He was more consistent than his Mercedes counterpart George Russell and Sainz is fancied to finish higher than the Brit in the standings again this year having outscored Russell by 25 points in 2023.

After his maiden victory in Brazil in 2022, Russell was expected to kick on, only to take a step back last season, blowing a chance at his second win in Singapore.

The Hamilton move dynamic could have an affect on how both Russell and Sainz are treated by their respective teams, but if Ferrari have gained a performance edge over Mercedes during the winter, and given Sainz’s more dependable nature, it’s reasonable to believe the Spaniard can win this head-to-head matchup.

Don’t count on Ricciardo recovery year

Towards the rear of the grid, the team formerly known as AlphaTauri, clumsily renamed Visa Cash App RB, or RB for short, are threatening to break away from the pack. 

Red Bull’s junior team were pushing for points towards the end of last season and having taken some key parts from last year's all-conquering RB19, they look poised to take another step forward.

With regular top-10 contenders Alpine behind the curve on the development of their 2024 car, RB could snipe a few points early on, but it may not be former Red Bull and McLaren driver Daniel Ricciardo leading the charge.

There’s been lots of talk about the Australian rediscovering his love for F1 but he’s got to prove it. He was consistently outperformed by Lando Norris in his last year at McLaren and Yuki Tsunoda didn’t show many signs of taking a backward step in races against Ricciardo last year.

In seven races as team mates in 2023, Tsunoda came home ahead of Ricciardo four times on his way to finishing the year with a very respectable 17 points.

A chance is worth taking on the Japanese driver outperforming Ricciardo once again over the course of an entire season. 

Free bets on Formula 1

The 2024 Formula 1 season kicks off in Bahrain this weekend and there’s a chance to grab a free bet to wager on the new campaign.

Bet365 offer the top price on all three of our 2024 Formula 1 predictions and by signing up for a new account using the bet365 promo codeINDY2023, users can get up to £30 in free bets.

To claim the full £30 in free bets, users will need to register and deposit a minimum of £10. They’ll then need to place a wager of £10 or more on a selection with odds of 1/5 or greater on the sportsbook. 

Once the wager is settled, you’ll receive the free bets, which can be used on Formula 1. Users will also have access to bet365’s UK online casino, where they’ll find a huge array of the best slots.

Before signing up with any new betting sites, check the terms and conditions of the welcome offer first. If you do have a bet on the F1, or any other sport, please remember to gamble responsibly.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.