2024 MLB American League MVP Odds and Analysis
The 2024 MLB season is right around the corner, which is why Adam Burke already put out a free MLB Betting Primer. That guide will tell you everything you need to know about how you should be betting on baseball. More specifically, Adam goes into the strategy of betting on baseball, and he also tells you how to utilize sabermetrics. Soon, Adam will go in more depth to provide you with team-by-team analysis to really have you feeling ready to go. However, we also know that there’s a real hunger to bet on futures markets. And that’s especially true about player awards. That said, keep reading for a look at the American League MVP odds.
- Aaron Judge (+550)
- Juan Soto (+600)
- Yordan Alvarez (+800)
- Corey Seager (10-1)
- Julio Rodriguez (11-1)
- Adley Rutschman (13-1)
- Gunnar Henderson (15-1)
- Kyle Tucker (17-1)
- Bobby Witt Jr. (20-1)
- Mike Trout (20-1)
(You can find the rest of the AL MVP odds by clicking here)
Aaron Judge (+550): Two years ago, Aaron Judge batted .311 with 62 homers and 131 RBIs and had a WAR of 10.6 on his way to winning AL MVP. It only makes sense that Judge is the favorite to win MVP again, as he’s still arguably the most intimidating plate presence in baseball. But injuries are always a concern with New York’s superstar. Last year, Judge played only 106 games for the Yankees. He has now had quite a few injury-riddled seasons, and it feels like a when, not if, that he’ll get injured. If you’re betting on Judge, you just have to hope that whatever injury he suffers won’t be serious. But I personally believe there are better ways to play this market. The American League is filled with talented players, so you can get better prices elsewhere.
Gunnar Henderson (15-1): Last season, Henderson was the MLB Rookie of the Year. He batted .255 with 28 homers, 82 RBIs and had a WAR of 6.2 (seventh amongst position players). Henderson was also fourth in the league in UZR at 7.4, which is a metric that captures fielding ability. That number had him first amongst all third basemen and shortstops. There just aren’t any holes in Henderson’s game, and the 22-year-old is only going to get more and more comfortable at the plate. So, given his ability to impact games with both his bat and his glove, I like the value on Henderson to win MVP. He’s arguably the best player for one of the most exciting teams in baseball. Rutschman, his teammate and the first overall pick in a 2019 draft that saw Henderson go in the second round, is right above him on this list. But Rutschman would have to be really special to win this award as a catcher. So, I like the price on Henderson a little more.
Marcus Semien (40-1): Semien’s first year in Texas didn’t go as planned, as he hit .248 with 26 homers and 83 RBIs and had a WAR of 5.7. But Semien responded in a big way in 2023, batting .276 with 29 homers and 100 RBIs and a career-high WAR of 7.4. That WAR also had Semien tied for third amongst all position players in MLB. It’s just not often that you get a player coming off that type of season at 40-1 odds. Semien is a dangerous hitter that is part of an extremely dangerous lineup. And he led the league in at-bats last year. That means he’ll have all sorts of opportunities to do some damage this season. And I don’t think it’s outrageous to believe that he has some room to improve. Semien batted only .210 with 10 homers and 31 RBIs at home in his first year with the Rangers, and he was electric on the road. Well, last year he was excellent at home and a bit worse on the road. Perhaps things will even out a bit in 2023 and we’ll get another monstrous season out of him.
