2024 MLB predictions, odds: A long shot pick to win the AL Cy Young award

With spring training well underway, the 2024 MLB season is fast approaching.

Now’s the time to get your futures bets in.

Today, I’m focusing on the American League Cy Young race, where I’m targeting a left-hander many baseball fans may never have heard of.

Unsurprisingly, names like Gerrit Cole, the reigning winner, and Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young award winner, are at the top of the AL’s Cy Young odds board.

But we’re targeting a long shot pitcher a bit further down the list — Royals starter Cole Ragans, who finished last season as one of the best in baseball.

Ragans, 26, dominated for Kansas City in the second half of 2023 after being traded from the Rangers for Aroldis Chapman in late June.

In 12 starts with the Royals, Ragans posted a sparkling 2.64 ERA while allowing a minuscule .195 batting average against and striking out 31.1 percent of batters over 71 ⅔ innings.

He opened the spring this week right where he left off, striking out five while allowing three hits and no walks over two innings against the Angels.

Ragans’ stuff looked even better than his stat line, touching 101 mph on the gun on one of his strikeouts.

It may seem like a small sample size, but Ragans’ seemingly out-of-nowhere breakout has a clear springboard: the development of a nasty slider upon arriving in Kansas City.

Ragans’ slider quickly became one of the best in baseball with a league-best (min. 50 plate appearances) 4.4 Run Value per 100 pitches and a 40 percent whiff rate.

The slider addition also gave him a full, five-pitch arsenal of weapons that he could use in any count.

The stuff is all there, it just might be a bit early to expect a Cy Young-caliber workload from the flame thrower, if you’re looking for a downside.

Last season was Ragans’ first in the big leagues, and he tailed off a bit down the stretch, suggesting he may not be ready to throw 200+ innings.

It was less than a year ago that Texas was grooming Ragans to be a relief pitcher.

But the days of pitchers throwing 250 innings or more in a single season are behind us.

Take last season’s NL Cy Young race.

Blake Snell, a pitcher with a similar profile to Ragans, won the award in just 180 innings.

If he can get to around 180 innings, Ragans will be right in the race until the very end. At this number, it’s worth a lottery ticket wager.

The pick: Cole Ragans to win AL Cy Young +3000 (BetRivers)