MLB Betting Markets Starting To Heat Up As Spring Training Begins

There’s something genuinely poetic about the Super Bowl closing down the football season on February 11, everyone getting two days off, and then pitchers and catchers starting to report for MLB spring training on February 14.

Sure, there’s basketball and golf and auto racing and MMA and everything else, but football into baseball into football into baseball … that’s America right there.

Also America: Betting on this stuff.

“I’m glad to get it started,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations. “I really enjoy the game, and there’s a lot of teams with high expectations this year.”

Perhaps none higher than the Los Angeles Dodgers and their 103.5 win total prop (-115 on the over, -105 on the under at Avello’s book). The Dodgers are also the heavy favorite to win the World Series at +350 at DraftKings, +375 at BetRivers.

“We’re taking money there,” Avello said. “They’re the No. 1 team to win it all, and we’re getting pretty hammered on it. Their odds are really short, and I know the team’s loaded, but a really short price this early in the season … well, they’re taking it. The bettors don’t care.”

Avello said the other team getting heavy action is the Orioles, at +1200 to win the World Series.

“They’re getting bet pretty good preseason,” he said. “Their regular season wins have moved. They opened at 88.5, up to 90.5.”

As far as some longer shots for the World Series go? Avello said they’re not getting a ton of action there, except for a few expected spots.

“The Mets are 45-to-1, we’re drawing money there,” he said. “And we’re taking a little money on the Reds, Rays, and Marlins. But nothing too crazy.”

One player prop Avello is keeping his eye on is the home run leader prop. New Dodger Shohei Ohtani led the league in home runs per at bat last year, won’t be pitching this year, and is surrounded and protected by big bats.

But he’s tied for fifth (at +900, alongside new Yankee Juan Soto) to lead the league in homers. Aaron Judge at +350, Matt Olson at +600, Pete Alonso at +700, and Kyle Schwarber at +750 are all listed ahead of Ohtani.

“We just like the other guys,” Avello said. “Judge is capable of hitting 50, 60, Alonso the same, Olson the same, Schwarber the same. He could hit a lot of home runs, and his home run total could be really good, but good enough to win the home run title? We just feel the other guys can hit more.”

Speaking of some longshot props …

Justin Carlucci is an analyst for Sports Handle’s sister site, Scores and Odds, and he has his eyes on a pair of big longshot bets.

“I like Max Meyer for National League Rookie of the Year,” Carlucci said. “He was injured in 2022, two games and six innings into career, hasn’t pitched in 18 months, and has a serious chance to break into the rotation. He’s 60-to-1 on Caesars.”

He was also the third pick in the 2020 draft. 

“It’s just a massive number,” Carlucci noted. “He was a highly touted prospect, played five seasons at the collegiate and minor league level with an ERA under 3.00 and more than a strikeout per inning at each spot. He seems like a rational longshot.”

Carlucci also notes the importance of line shopping – Meyer is 26-to-1 at FanDuel for the same award.

Another longshot Carlucci has his eye on is Kansas City Royals pitcher Cole Ragans, who is 30-to-1 to win the AL Cy Young at Caesars. Ragans was traded from the Rangers last year, and the change of scenery did him good. As a reliever for the Rangers, he went 2-3 with a 5.92 ERA. With the Royals, he blossomed into an ace-in-waiting, with a 2.64 ERA over 12 starts, 1.25 strikeouts per inning, and he sliced his walk rate by more than 65%.

“When Ragans was traded to Kansas City, he became a different pitcher,” Carlucci said. “Before, he threw a slider literally once a game, but in Kansas City it became a staple of his arsenal, leading to a 40% whiff rate and a 30% putaway rate, according to Baseball Savant. One minor tweak can really unlock a player, and there’s a chance Ragans is elite.”

Of course, there are thousands of other props out there for the taking, and all of them are waiting for the same two words that millions of people love to hear each spring: Play ball!