2024 Oscars Long-Shot Predictions: Upsets to Watch During Academy Awards
Oppenheimer is favored to win big across the Oscars' main categories, but there are opportunities for upsets in some categories ahead of Sunday's awards show.
There aren't expected to be many surprises at the 96th Academy Awards, which air Sunday at 7 p.m., as Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer leads the way with 13 nominations and is favored to win most of those categories. Poor Things drew 11 nominations, too, while Killers of the Flower Moon picked up 10.
Other films nominated in multiple categories include the box-office sensation Barbie and smaller indie films The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest, and Anatomy of a Fall. Which categories present the best chances of an upset on Oscar night?
To complement our breakdown of the 2024 Oscars odds and predictions and our Oscars best bets, here are our Oscars long-shot predictions for the 2024 Academy Awards based on the odds from our best sports betting sites.
Add to your viewing party with our FREE printable Oscars ballot PDF.
Oscars long shots
Not intended for use in MA
Affiliate disclosure: Sportsbook Review may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook
Academy Awards upset predictions
Best Actress winner: Emma Stone (+165 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Favorite: Lily Gladstone
Stone and Gladstone have been neck and neck throughout the awards season, with each picking up huge wins. The two performances couldn’t be more different, as Stone gives an over-the-top performance as a woman learning to be a woman in her modern world, while Gladstone is much more subtle in her role as Mollie Kyle.
After Gladstone won the Screen Actors Guild award, she shot to the lead as the favorite, but that doesn’t mean this is a lock. Though the last two actresses to win the SAG for Lead Actress also won the Oscar, Viola Davis won for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom three years ago before losing to Frances McDormand for Nomadland at the Oscars.
What hurts Gladstone most is the addition of Sandra Huller for Anatomy of a Fall. Huller wasn’t nominated for the SAG but enters the Oscars with a lot of momentum and a powerhouse performance. Her performance is more similar to Gladstone’s than Stone’s, so the voters who do select Huller to win are likely taking votes away from Gladstone. In a close race, Stone will narrowly escape with the win.
Best Adapted Screenplay winner: Barbie (+500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
Favorite: American Fiction
Barbie is likely the weakest screenplay in this stacked category, but this is the one major award that the biggest film of 2023 can legitimately win.
Many believe Greta Gerwig was snubbed of a Best Director nomination. Therefore, with her getting the nomination in this category, alongside her husband Noah Baumbach, Academy voters could vote for her as a way of honoring her directing as well.
The favorite in this category is Cord Jefferson's American Fiction. While the film is a crowd-pleaser, it’s simply not as popular as Barbie. Poor Things, Oppenheimer, and The Zone of Interest are all better known for other aspects of their film. So, in a two-horse race, take the more popular film at excellent odds.
Best Sound winner: The Zone of Interest (+160 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
Favorite: Oppenheimer
The remaining major categories are going to go chalk, so for our last pick, we’re going with a category that is being overlooked this year.
There is no denying how incredible the sound in Oppenheimer is. The silence before the initial explosion of the atomic bomb, followed by one of the loudest noises you’ll hear in a film, is incredible. And, in typical Nolan fashion, the score, dialogue, and on-screen noises all work together to create intensity from start to finish of the three-hour epic.
But this category should be won by The Zone of Interest. In the film, you don’t see horrors take place; you hear them. As the main characters of the film go about their everyday lives, gunshots, screaming, and other horrors are heard in the distance. And what makes it all the more disturbing is the characters never even react to the noises they’re hearing.
The Zone of Interest is a bold and disturbing film that is unlike anything else you’ll see or hear this year. Oppenheimer could win just because it’s the bigger film, but getting The Zone of Interest at +150 or better is worth looking at because it should leave Sunday with this award.
Oscars betting odds pages
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
