Academy Awards Betting: Best Director, Actor, Actress Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook

Movie festival season is upon us which means all the critics and movie pontificators are getting their first glimpses of possible award-season caliber films. With that said, we now have more categories to bet on at DraftKings Sportsbook for the upcoming Academy Awards. Let’s check out the Best Director, Best Actor and Best Actress categories and share my first reactions to the odds.

BEST DIRECTOR

Early Prediction: Christopher Nolan (-140)

Longshot to Watch: Greta Gerwig (11/1)

It’s never good to say that you are certain about anything, but when it comes to this year’s Best Director category, Christopher Nolan (-140) is my biggest slam dunk of the year — which is quite the statement to make so far away from Oscars night. When looking at past history, the other possible nominees and the sheer amount of praise he has received for the massive achievement of Oppenheimer, it is really hard to see anyone else on that stage in March. Many will point to Martin Scorsese (+175) as the top contender to topple the top dog this year with Killers of the Flower Moon coming out later this year. Scorsese has already won his Oscar and has been nominated nine times. With Nolan at the right age and pedigree, it seems like the right time to award him with his Oscar.That brings me to what I think is the other contender in this race. The billion-dollar woman, Greta Gerwig (11/1). With the highest-grossing movie of the year in Barbie, it is unmistakable that she will get a nomination. She is one of the most sought-after directors of her generation and has already racked up three nominations by the age of 40. This goes back to the Margot Robbie debate for Best Actress — will the Academy take Barbie seriously? I don’t think she will win, but at 11/1 odds, she might be a good person to sprinkle some money on and hope for a great push leading up to award season.

BEST ACTRESS

Early Prediction: Lily Gladstone (+250)

Longshot To Watch: Greta Lee (+900)

Just like last year’s fight between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, I predict this year won’t be any different. I believe that Lily Gladstone (+250) is the rightful front-runner as she stars opposite Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro. But coming out of Telluride, CO, there is a lot of love for Emma Stone (+300) in Yorgos Lanthimos’ Sci-Fi Black Comedy Poor Things. This film has been divisive similar to how Babylon was loved by critics, but nobody went to see it. This film might suffer the same fate, especially with the graphic nature and outlandish themes you might need to wait and see how it appeals to the general public. Margot Robbie (+350) has been winning all of 2023 — can she continue that streak into 2024 at the Academy Awards Ceremony? She has been nominated twice for an Academy Award and is a bonafide star. This will be a competitive category this year and again, you must take into account if the Academy will take Barbie seriously. I would wait and see at this point for Best Actress.A longshot to watch is Greta Lee (+900) from Past Lives. This is most likely going to be A24’s strongest contender this year and will likely get the most backing come March. Lee turns in an emotionally controlled performance in this long-lost love drama. Truly grounded and real, this is the type of performance that the Academy has grown to love as opposed to those big-time performances. It might be a little too small for my taste, but if she gains major momentum, she might have a shot.

BEST ACTOR

Early Prediction: Cillian Murphy (-120)

Longshot To Watch: Colman Domingo (+275)

I’ve been curious about what the opening numbers would be in this category. To no surprise, Cillian Murphy (-120) is the early front-runner ahead of Leonardo DiCaprio (+220). This was expected and I wouldn’t make any moves right now until at least Killers of the Flower Moon is released on October 20th. My early lean would be to Cillian Murphy but not at that price. I’m going to wait to watch the market flood with money on Leo and then hammer Cillian Murphy at maybe +100 or even +120 because I feel that strongly about his performance. If you’re someone who wants to hit more of a home run, I would strongly consider taking a look at Colman Domingo (+275) in Rustin. He has garnered endless acclaim at The Telluride Film Festival and is looking for his first nomination at the Academy Awards. It also helps that this is a film produced by former U.S. President & First Lady Barrack and Michelle Obama’s production company Higher Ground. For the Grand Slam hitters, you can bet on Joaquin Phoenix (18/1) for Ridley Scott’s Napoleon. Phoenix is in sort of the Oscar “no man’s land”, as he won recently in 2020 for Joker. The heat has sort of worn off of that win and it would really be starting the race from the ground up. You can also look at Adam Driver (20/1) in Michael Mann’s Ferrari. Driver has been on hand in Venice to promote the high-octane biopic with the blessing of the SAG-AFTRA and overall, has been on the Academy’s radar for quite some time now. Will it be for Ferrari? It will certainly be an uphill climb in a stacked category this year.

—Written by VSiN’s Brian Ortega

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