2024 Players Championship predictions, picks: TPC Sawgrass long shot bets

THE PLAYERS Championship occupies a pivotal spot in the golf calendar.

Not only is it known as the “fifth major” because of the strength of its field, iconic course and status as the PGA Tour’s flagship event, but THE PLAYERS is also the unofficial jumping-off point of the major championship season.

The Masters is just a month away. 

Defending champion Scottie Scheffler (+500) is the clear betting favorite at TPC Sawgrass after his win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and there is a decent gap between him and the second-favorite, Rory McIlroy, at +1200.

There’s also a jump between McIlroy and the next tier, which includes Xander Schauffele (+2000), Justin Thomas (+2200), Viktor Hovland (+2500), Patrick Cantlay (+2500) and Max Homa (+2800).

One of the reasons punters love events like THE PLAYERS is that, because of the strength of the field, you can often catch terrific numbers on some big names who may be flying under the radar for one reason or another.

That’ll be the focus of my betting card.

The Englishman was a trendy pick to win last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he burned his backers by shooting a 10 on the par-5 sixth hole and that was that.

Fleetwood is now being offered at double the price at a course where he’s posted a couple of top-10s and has only missed the cut once in six attempts.

If you put the API aside, it’s already been a strong year for Fleetwood with a win in Dubai and a T-10 at the Genesis, so I’ve got no problem drawing a line through last week (and overlooking that he still hasn’t won in the United States). 

It might feel as if it’s been a quiet season for Finau, but it’s actually kind of strange that he’s flying this far under the radar in this field.

Finau hasn’t threatened to win an event in 2024, but he’s finished inside the top-25 in four of his six starts this year and posted a T-6 at Torrey Pines.

His history at THE PLAYERS isn’t anything to write home about with four missed cuts in seven trips, but two of those were in his first two starts at TPC Sawgrass and he’s coming off a T-19 in 2023.

Simply put, Finau is good enough to be worth a punt at this number.

Things have not come easy for Im over the past calendar year, but he did show some flashes last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

He was hanging around the leaderboard for a good chunk of the weekend, but a poor Sunday doomed him and he wound up finishing a respectable T-18.

It was the kind of performance that put Im in a sweet spot for longshot punters.

It was good enough to make you wonder if he was beginning to find some form, but it wasn’t noteworthy enough to get bookmakers’ attention.

We’ll take it and hope we can beat the market to Im’s inevitable upward trend. 

This is simply a play on Rose’s history at THE PLAYERS.

The Englishman isn’t in any sort of form at the moment, but he’s got three top-10 finishes at Bay Hill since 2014 and posted a T-6 a year ago.

Rose has been a mixed bag in 2024, but he’s 13 months removed from his last win on the PGA Tour, so he’s worth a shot at a course that fits his game.