2024 Southwest Stakes predictions, odds, post time, contenders: Picks from expert who nailed exacta last year

The Michael Stidham-trained Maycocks Bay can validate himself as a contender for the Kentucky Derby when he faces 11 other rivals in the 2024 Southwest Stakes on Saturday at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark. A Godolphin homebred, Maycocks Bay has two wins and one second in five career starts. He is coming off a 10¾-length romp in an allowance race at Fair Grounds. Maycocks Bay is the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the 2024 Southwest Stakes odds. Wynstock, who is trained by Bob Baffert, is second in the odds at 4-1 in the 12-horse Southwest Stakes field. Carbone (9-2) rounds out the top three on the odds board. 

The winner of the Southwest will earn 20 qualifying points toward the Kentucky Derby. Post time is 5:50 p.m. ET. With an accomplished field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, you'll want to see what SportsLine writer Gene Menez has to say before making any Southwest Stakes picks or horse racing predictions.

A former reporter and editor at Sports Illustrated, Menez covered an array of sports, including horse racing, for the magazine and its website for almost 14 years. Between 2010 and 2012, he served as SI's handicapper for the Triple Crown races and correctly predicted Super Saver to win the Kentucky Derby in 2010. In 2015, while writing for Sports on Earth, Menez accurately gave out the Kentucky Derby superfecta (American Pharoah, Firing Line, Dortmund and Frosted), which paid $1,268.20 for $2. Then in 2017, he tweeted out his Kentucky Derby picks, including Always Dreaming to win, and hit the Pick 4, which paid almost $6,900 on a $1 bet.

In a span of seven races last year for SportsLine, he cashed the winner of the Lecomte Stakes, the exacta in the Southwest Stakes ($468), the winner of the Holy Bull Stakes, the winner of the Sam F. Davis Stakes and the trifecta in the Jenny Wiley Stakes. In May, he nailed National Treasure's win in the Preakness.

For Saturday, Menez has handicapped the 2024 Southwest Stakes field, made his picks and constructed his best bets. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2024 Southwest Stakes predictions

One surprise: Menez is taking a stand against Wynstock. A $700,000 purchase in April, Wynstock has won back-to-back starts, including a win in the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity in his last start. He is 4-1 on the morning line, behind only the favorite, Maycocks Bay.

Wynstock, however, won his last two races by getting an uncontested lead, and Menez does not believe Wynstock is fast enough to get to the front in a field filled with quick frontrunners. "He will have to win this race from off the pace, which he hasn't done before," Menez told SportsLine. He is not using Wynstock in any of his wagers. You can see all of Menez's 2024 Southwest Stakes bets here.

However, Menez is high on the chances of Awesome Road, who is an 8-1 longshot. A $600,000 purchase in September 2022, Awesome Road has one win in three career starts. He has had two months off since finishing a disappointing fifth in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

Awesome Road's debut win was one of the most impressive performances that any horse in this field has produced, earning an 88 Beyer Speed Figure, and Menez trusts in trainer Brad Cox's ability to get the horse back in form. "Cox has cross-entered Awesome Road at Turfway Park on Saturday but has decided to run in the Southwest Stakes, which suggests to me that he likes what he has been seeing from Awesome Road," Menez told SportsLine. He is including Awesome Road prominently in his wagers. You can see all of Menez's 2024 Southwest Stakes bets here.

How to make 2024 Southwest Stakes picks

Moreover, Menez's top pick is a longshot who "could very well be the biggest beneficiary" on Saturday. He also is high on a double-digit longshot who "should thrive with the added distance." He is including these horses in his wagers, and so should you. He's sharing which horses to back at SportsLine.

So what longshot wins the 2024 Southwest Stakes? What double-digit longshot is a must-back? And how has Menez constructed his wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Menez's picks for the Southwest Stakes, and find out.