76ers vs Pistons Odds, Prediction, Pick (Wednesday, Dec. 13)
Somehow, the Detroit Pistons are 2-21.
They’ve lost 20 straight games.
Their average margin of defeat is over 10 points per game.
They’ve been impossibly bad.
Our hometown Philadelphia 76ers visit Detroit to play the cellar-dwelling Pistons on Wednesday night, entering the matchup sitting fourth in the Eastern Conference and two games behind the East-leading Celtics.
They’ve won three straight by a combined 61 points, and they’re likely to post their fourth straight, given the Sixers are laying double-digits on the road against a lifeless opponent.
Even better, the Sixers will battle Detroit again on Friday in back-to-back matchups.
That said, the Pistons hung around with the Sixers the last time these two matched up, and I think the NBA’s worst team can do it again.
-12 (-110)-700o233 (-110)+12 (-110)+525u233 (-110)Read our expert rankings of the best sports betting sites
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When these two met last month in Detroit, the 76ers outshot the Pistons from 3 (9-for-29 to 8-for-28) and generated almost 20 more free-throw attempts (35-for-41 to 18-for-22).
Yet, the Sixers only won 114-106, failing to cover an 8.5-point spread.
The Pistons managed to hang around mainly by out-rebounding the Sixers and holding Joel Embiid to only 8-for-21 shooting, including only 1-for-4 from 3.
Detroit’s Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart are surprisingly good frontcourt defenders. Duran ranks in the 91st percentile of NBA players in Estimated Defensive Plus-Minus (+1.6), while Stewert ranks in the 88th percentile (+1.2).
Somehow, these scrappy frontcourt pieces hung around with the NBA’s most dominant interior player.
Moreover, Detroit runs a pick-and-roll-heavy, rim-running offense, and while the Pistons are very inefficient, the Sixers’ ball-screen defense and rim protection can be sketchy.
In the last matchup, Detroit generated a solid 37 shot attempts either at the rim or from the short mid-range, making 27 (73%).
That wasn’t enough to win outright, and the Pistons’ defense will always hold them back, but it was enough to stay within a three-possession spread at home.
I think they can do it again, and Detroit’s catching an extra two possessions this time around.
The Sixers just aren’t that great on the road. Their net rating goes from +13.7 at home to +3.1 on the road, meaning they’re about 10 points worse per game away from Philly. As a result, they’re only 6-4 straight up and against the spread on the road this year.
Conversely, the Pistons’ net rating jumps about two points at home (from -10.9 to -8.8). It’s not much, but combined with Philly’s road woes, it might be enough for the Sixers to cover a 12-point spread.
It’s an ugly, hold-your-nose pick, but I think the Pistons have enough matchup advantages to prevent a blowout. It’s hard to cover a double-digit spread on the road in the NBA, even if your team is an offensive juggernaut led by Tyrese Maxey and the defending MVP.
Pistons +12 (-110) at Caesars | Play to +10.5 (-110)
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