Phillies-Cardinals prediction: Picks, odds on Saturday, September 16

The Philadelphia Phillies (80-67) held on for a nerve-racking (and sorely needed) win in their series opener against the St. Louis Cardinals (65-82) on Friday night. With the rest of the NL Wild Card picture in near-constant flux, Philly will look to tighten its grip on the top spot — and home-field advantage in the first round — in game two of this weekend set, with first pitch from Busch Stadium scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. Ranger Suarez (2-6, 3.93 ERA) takes the mound for the visitors, while the Cardinals counter with righty Miles Mikolas (7-11, 4.75).

The Phillies enter as -125 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with St. Louis at +105. The run total is set at 9.

Phillies-Cardinals picks: Saturday, September 16

Injury report

Phillies

Out: 1B Rhys Hoskins (knee)

Cardinals

Day-To-Day: C Willson Contreras (hand)
Out: OF Dylan Carlson (ankle), INF Brendan Donovan (elbow), 2B Nolan Gorman (hamstring), RP JoJo Romero (knee), SP Steven Matz (lat), RP Guillermo Zuniga (forearm)

Starting pitchers

Ranger Suarez vs. Miles Mikolas

Suarez was locked in last weekend against the Marlins, striking out 10 while holding Miami scoreless through six innings (he’d eventually be charged with three runs in the seventh, forcing him to settle for a no-decision and souring his final line). The lefty has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last five starts, and hitting his stride at just the right time as he now faces off against a Cardinals team that has the sixth-lowest OPS against southpaws since the start of September.

Mikolas has gotten hit all over the yard recently, with at least seven hits allowed in six of his last seven starts and 10 homers allowed in that span (ERA in that time: 6.94). He’s always around the strike zone (94th-percentile BB rate), but he simply doesn’t have the tools in his arsenal to miss bats consistently — and that contact has gotten him in trouble with a 15.4 strikeout percentage and both righties and lefties hitting at least .281 against him.

Over/Under pick

9 feels a bit low here. These teams hit that number last night, and the pitching situation is even shakier on Saturday — especially with Mikolas’ recent form. Philly has scored at least five runs in 12 of their last 17 games, and that feels like the floor in this matchup. If the Cardinals contribute even a little bit to the score line here, we should hit this over comfortably.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

With Suarez in far better form on the mound here — not to mention the motivation gap between these two teams at the moment — we should be seeing way less juice than this on the Phillies. This lineup should have no problem with Mikolas, and I think Suarez does enough to earn a crucial win.