Giants-Phillies prediction: Picks, odds on Wednesday, August 23

After rallying for a wild walk-off win last night, the Philadelphia Phillies (69-57) look to bolster their Wild Card case and finish off a sweep of the fading San Francisco Giants (65-61) on Wednesday afternoon. First pitch of the series finale is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park. Alex Cobb (6-5, 3.75 ERA) will look to turn his rough August around for the Giants, while Philly gives the ball to Michael Lorenzen (5-7, 3.58).

The Phillies enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with San Francisco at +110. The run total is set at 8.5.

Giants-Phillies picks: Wednesday, August 23rd

Injury report

Giants

Out: SS Brandon Crawford (forearm), OF Mike Yastrzemski (hamstring), OF/DH AJ Pollock (oblique), SP Ross Stripling (back), OF Mitch Haniger (forearm), SP Anthony DeSclafani (elbow)

Phillies

Out: OF Christian Pache (elbow/hip), SP Ranger Suarez (hamstring)

Starting pitchers

Alex Cobb vs. Michael Lorenzen

The Giants as a whole have struggled this month, and Cobb is no exception, with an 0-2 record and 7.59 ERA over four August starts. He’s given up a whopping 24 hits and 15 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings, with five walks to just nine strikeouts. Cobb typically goes as his splitter goes — he throws the pitch over 35% of the time and particularly leans on it with two strikes — and sure enough, it’s failed him of late, with a 23.7% whiff rate that’s nearly seven points off last year’s mark.

Lorenzen followed up his dream no-hitter with arguably his worst start of the year, giving up seven runs (six earned) on eight hits with just a single strikeout in 3.1 innings against the Nationals last week. Still, it’s tempting to chalk that up as just one bad start, as the righty had allowed five total runs in his previous 40.2 frames.

Over/Under pick

The Phillies have racked up 14 runs over the first two games of this series and 45 in their last six games overall, and unless Cobb suddenly finds the feel for his splitter between starts, they should be able to do some serious damage again this afternoon. If the Giants give us anything at all — not out of the question, given Lorenzen’s rough last start and Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto and LaMonte Wade Jr. showing signs of life lately — this over should hit.

Pick: Over 8.5

Moneyline pick

Philly boasts the far more consistent starter and the far deeper and more dangerous lineup, and while they’re no strangers to losing games they shouldn’t this season, it’s awfully hard to back Cobb in this spot — especially considering how spotty San Fran’s run support has been this month.