Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks Game 5 odds, picks & predictions
The Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in Wednesday’s Game 5 of the World Series. First pitch at Chase Bank Field in Phoenix is slated for 8:03 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Rangers vs. Diamondbacks odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Series: Rangers lead 3-1
Texas bolted to a 10-0 lead and then hung for an 11-7 win Tuesday in Game 4. The Rangers scored 5 runs each in the 2nd and 3rd innings, as they edged their postseason OPS up to an even .800 with 10 hits, including 3 HRs.
The Diamondbacks, which took 3 of 4 from the Rangers in the regular season, had 12 hits and struck out just 6 times Tuesday, But Arizona is now on the edge of elimination after an effort to bullpen Game 4 went sideways.
Rangers at Diamondbacks projected starters
RHP Nathan Eovaldi vs. RHP Zac Gallen
Eovaldi made 25 starts in the regular season, going 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA. He had a 1.14 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 over 144 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 6 H , 5 R, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-5 win vs. Diamondbacks Friday (WS Game 1)
- 2023 road stats (regular season): 6-2, 3.56 ERA in 78 1/3 IP across 13 starts
- Last 5 starts vs. Diamondbacks: 2-0, 3.03 ERA in 29 2/3 IP (2012-23)
- Postseason: 3.30 ERA in 73 2/3 IP (2018-23)
Gallen made 34 starts in the regular season, going 17-9 with a 3.47 ERA. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 210 innings.
- Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 H, 4 3, 4 BB, 5 K in 6-5 loss vs. Rangers Friday (WS Game 1)
- 2023 home stats (regular season): 12-3, 2.47 ERA in 102 IP across 16 starts
- Last 4 starts vs. Rangers: 1-1, 3.97 ERA in 22 2/3 IP
- Postseason: 5.27 ERA in 27 1/3 IP (all this October)
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Rangers at Diamondbacks odds
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines updated at 7:17 a.m. ET.
Rangers at Diamondbacks picks and predictions
Prediction
Rangers 5, Diamondbacks 4
Eovaldi is a workhorse hurler likely to be glad to have a 2nd bite at the apple after scuffling in Game 1. In 4 previous postseason games this October, he had yielded 2 runs or less 3 times (allowed 3 runs the other game). He has a good playoff history — expect a bounce-back effort with a chance to spray champagne after this one.
Gallen has excellent numbers at home, but there have been recent signs of fatigue. The Arizona right-hander allowed 5 HR in 11 IP vs. the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS, and he walked 4 batters in the 1st game of this title set. Gallen threw 121 /13 innings in 2021 and then upped that to 184 in 2022. His combined regular and postseason innings heading into this game: 237 1/3 IP. He may well be up against a wall.
Strikeout rate minus walk rate is a good indicator for pitchers. In these playoffs, Gallen owns a lackluster 4.2% mark while Eovaldi comes in with a robust 24.6%. Gallen has been barreled up more frequently and is on the fade side in this meeting.
Mix in a Texas squad that in the regular season ranked 4th in MLB with a .788 OPS vs. right-handed pitching, and the Rangers look like a should-be -130 in this one. And then there is this: Texas has won 2 straight games in this World Series. The last 4 times the Rangers won 2 straight games after a loss, they turned game 3 into a win also.
BET THE RANGERS (-110).
More juice here and not enough faith in the Texas bullpen to get a 2- or 3-run lead cleanly to the finish line. PASS.
The Over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between Texas and Arizona. With a lot of comfortable batters on both sides and 3/4ths of the Game 5 pitching pie being fade-worthy (Gallen, both bullpens), the Over is a lean here.
With just enough respect to Gallen in his home yard and the fact the back ends of both pens could be involved, PASS unless you get an evenly-priced (-110) 8.5-run total. And then, a half-unit is recommended.
