Arsenal vs Newcastle Odds & Picks

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23 February 2024

Arsenal return home after a midweek letdown in Champions League action, but our soccer picks believe Newcastle is the perfect opposition for the Gunners to get back in the win column. Read on for the best way to attack this fixture!

Arsenal aims to rebound from disappointment in Europe and remain in the Premier League title hunt when they host Newcastle at Emirates Stadium on Saturday. Our soccer odds have the Gunners as overwhelming favorites to walk away victorious.

Arsenal’s Champions League foray on Wednesday ended in heartbreak, as they fell 1-0 to a stoppage-time goal and failed to register a single shot on goal. That’s a far cry from their recent EPL exploits, having scored 21 goals over their last five outings, and they’ll look to regain that form on Saturday.

Newcastle continues to fight through injuries, but they seem to have found some footing with an unbeaten run of five matches across all competitions. They’ve won four straight fixtures away from home, but it’ll take an improved performance over last week if they hope to maintain that streak at the Emirates.

Our free soccer picks for Arsenal vs Newcastle United on Saturday, February 24 focus on an Arsenal attacker who should put plenty of pressure on Newcastle’s defence.

Arsenal vs Newcastle best odds

EPL predictions for Arsenal vs Newcastle

Only six players in the Premier League have fired off more shots than Bukayo Saka this season. So far he’s taken 67 shots, and only 11 qualified players are attempting more per 90 minutes than the Arsenal winger.

That rate is even higher when you look at what he’s done over the past two months. Since Boxing Day, Saka’s 32 shots are second-most only to Phil Foden of Manchester City, who has played one more match during that time. While only nine of those efforts have been on goal, Saka has found the back of the net seven times.

Saturday’s match with Newcastle should afford him the opportunity to continue letting it fly, for a multitude of reasons. That’s why we’re backing the English winger to take at least three shots as our best bet.

Dan Burn will likely be tasked with trying to contain Saka, and that’s terrific news for those betting on a high shot total from Saka. Burn is a 31-year-old defender who stans 6’5” and simply isn’t very good at dealing with players of Saka’s technical ability.

Case in point is his performance against the aforementioned Foden when Newcastle hosted Manchester City in mid-January. The Citizens walked away with a 3-2 win, and Foden fired six shots on the day with two of them finding the target.

In recent matches, Anthony Elanga of Nottingham Forest and John McGinn of Aston Villa have each managed to get two shots off against Burn, and neither of those players shoot at the volume of Saka or Foden. To put that in perspective, McGinn has attempted just 15 shots since Boxing Day.

Newcastle is a team that has been torn apart on the counter-attack in recent weeks, in large part due to the injury issues impacting both their midfield and defense. Arsenal are a side that can torch teams in transition, and I expect them to attack Newcastle’s left side just as Manchester City did—the most similar team to Arsenal in regards to style of play.

TonyBet’s been kind enough to offer -106 odds for Saka to attempt three or more shots, a price I’ll happily take. That’s a mark he’s reached in three of his last four matches, and one I see him easily hitting on Saturday.

My best bet: Bukayo Saka 3+ shots (-106 at TonyBet)

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Arsenal vs Newcastle same-game parlay

Bukayo Saka Over 2.5 shotsArsenal Over 5 cornersMartin Odegaard to score or assist

Arsenal moneyline

Arsenal have attempted at least six corner kicks in five of their last six matches in all competitions, including 10 against Porto on Wednesday. They’ve averaged seven corner kicks in their last eight home matches in the Premier League, and they attempted 11 in the reverse fixture earlier this season. We’ll back them to attempt at least six here.

Martin Odegaard has been central to Arsenal’s recent offensive onslaught. He’s scored once and assisted three of their other 10 goals over the past two fixtures in the league, and has registered at least three key passes in nine straight Premier League outings. He’ll be central to unlocking Newcastle’s defense when they’re set up, and springing one of the forwards on the counter and is likely to contribute to a goal.

Arsenal are heavy favorites and rightly so, but they’re also motivated. The 1-0 loss to Newcastle in November was highly controversial, and revenge is on the mind of the Gunners. We’ll take them to be ahead at the final whistle.

Arsenal vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis

Arsenal opened as -175 favorites on the 3-way line, but have moved to -275 on the back of their recent offensive explosion. Conversely, Newcastle have moved from +400 to as high as +700. The draw is priced as high as +450.

The Gunners sit five points back of Liverpool, albeit with a match in hand, and cannot afford to drop points here. While I think the fatigue of a short turnaround and travel will keep them from running rampant, I don’t see them dropping points to a Newcastle side that has been struggling to defend against teams from the bottom half of the table.

Those used to a 2.5 total will be unhappy to see juice of -200 or higher, and even the 3.0 Asian line is prohibitively priced up to -140. That hasn’t changed much from the opening number. Those who think we will have a low-scoring affair can get rewarded for their bold play, with +165 on offer for Under 2.5 goals.

That said, I’m on the Over here all the way. Arsenal have every reason to go for goals—not just because of the revenge factor, but because they currently sit two goals behind Liverpool in goal differential. Newcastle may also get Alexander Isak back from injury, which would help their attack.

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Arsenal vs Newcastle game info

Arsenal vs Newcastle key injuries

Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus F (Doubtful), Jurrien Timber D (Out), Thomas Partey M (Doubtful).
Newcastle: Nick Pope GK (Out), Joelinton M (Out), Alexander Isak F (Doubtful).