Arsenal vs West Ham Odds & Picks

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27 December 2023

Arsenal will look to reclaim the top spot on the EPL table against West Ham with the oddsmakers not expecting a close match. Bukayo Saka has been deadly for the Gunners, and our betting picks expect him to torment the Hammers.

Arsenal will look to reclaim top spot in the Premier League on Thursday when they host cross-town foes West Ham at the Emirates. Premier League odds show Arsenal to be heavily favored to do just that.

The Gunners entered Christmas with the lead and Liverpool temporarily displaced them with a victory on Boxing Day. They’ll be thrilled to play in front of their home fans, having gone 13 unbeaten across all competitions at Emirates Stadium. However, they’ve enjoyed victory just once in their four outings, and Mikel Arteta has stressed the importance of taking all three points.

As for West Ham, David Moyes might be content with simply not conceding five goals. That’s exactly what his side has done in their last two away visits to Liverpool and Fulham, as they managed just one goal in the process. While those are their only two defeats in their last 11 matches in all competitions, Moyes has lost 18 of his 22 trips to Arsenal over his managerial career with zero wins.

Can he finally break through and get a victory, or will Arsenal be just another inhospitable host for the Hammers? My Arsenal vs West Ham EPL picks for Thursday, December 28 explain why this may literally be a one-sided affair.

Arsenal vs West Ham best odds

EPL predictions for Arsenal vs West Ham

Only Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest have a more titled attack this season than Arsenal. Whether down the left, right, or center, they’re the only three sides — along with Chelsea — that see their attack go through one-third of the pitch at more than 40%.

Bukayo Saka is the focal point of Arsenal’s right-sided charge. That combined with his recent forays into the box makes him the focal point of my best bet.

Arsenal have taken the third-most shots in the league this season, and 60% of those attempts have come inside the 18-yard area. They’ve also taken 13% of them from inside the six-yard box, the fourth-best percentage in the league. Arsenal’s fluid attack and outstanding passing allow them to create dangerous chances from high-value positions.

And over the past four matches, no Gunner has taken more shots inside the penalty area than Saka. His 11 shots in that span are tied for the most on the team, and he’s been unfortunate to score from them. Then again, Arsenal have only managed three goals in their last three matches, so he’s not alone in that respect.

West Ham are a terrific opponent for him to rediscover his goal-scoring form. After all, he scored Arsenal’s first goal in this fixture a season ago as the Gunners claimed a 3-1 victory at the Emirates. He’s going to relish the opportunity to face a defense allowing the fourth-most shots in the league and the fifth-most on goal.

Did I mention only three teams allow a higher percentage of shots from their opponents’ right flank this season than West Ham? Or that only four teams this season are allowing more play in their own third, with 31% of all match action taking place around their penalty area?

That’s great news for us, as we’re backing Saka to find the back of the net on Thursday. Saka’s last 18 home fixtures have seen him score 11 goals and assist seven others. He’s also Arsenal’s primary penalty taker, and he’ll hope to redeem himself after missing a penalty at West Ham a season ago.

At +170 odds, I love the value of a Saka goal. He’s getting into dangerous areas and is going against a side that has been torn to shreds in their last two away fixtures. Back the young winger to add to the Hammers’ misery and get his name on the scoresheet.

My best bet: Bukayo Saka anytime goalscorer (+170 at TonyBet)

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Arsenal vs West Ham same-game parlay

Bukayo Saka anytime goalscorerEmerson to be booked

West Ham Over 2.5 cards

I'm not only backing Saka to score, but to make things difficult for Emerson. The West Ham left back has done a better job the past two months of staying out of trouble — with just two yellow cards in his past 10 matches — but he struggles with creative wingers like Saka, and he’s prone to hauling a player back with a shirt grab when he’s beaten.

West Ham have picked up 46 yellow cards this season, the sixth-most coming into the holiday window. Arsenal have drawn 47 on their opponents, in large part due to their style of play and creative attackers, and getting plus odds for three West Ham bookings is a great addition to my parlay.

Arsenal vs West Ham side and Over/Under analysis

West Ham has lost more matches to Arsenal than any other Premier League foe, and Arsenal has more wins against West Ham in their Premier League history than any side not named Everton. Therefore, it makes sense the Gunners are favored with a price north of -300.

The Hammers are getting as high as +850 to win on the 3-way line, a number that came down from where it opened at +950. The draw is second-choice with +470 on offer.

As for the total, the Over is juiced up close to -200 while the Under will get you around +140. DraftKings has moved their default total to an even 3.0 goals, with the Under slightly preferred.

Including that aforementioned cup tie, the goals tend to fly when these sides meet up. This London derby has produced at least three goals in each of their last four meetings, with four or more scored in the last three.

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Arsenal vs West Ham game info

Arsenal vs West Ham key injuries

Arsenal: Kai Havertz M (Out), Jurrien Timber D (Out), Thomas Partey M (Out).
West Ham: Michail Antonio F (Out), Maxwel Cornet D (Doubtful), Nayef Aguerd D (Out).