Astros-Tigers prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 25

After a 17-1 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox on Thursday afternoon, the Houston Astros (72-57) look to get back on track and keep pace in the AL playoff chase as they kick off a road trip with a three-game set against the Detroit Tigers (58-69). First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Houston will send lefty Framber Valdez (9-9, 3.55 ERA) to the mound while Detroit counters with Matt Manning (5-4, 4.31).

The Astros enter as -175 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Tigers at +145. The run total is set at 9.

Astros-Tigers picks: Friday, August 25

Injury report

Astros

Out: INF Grae Kessinger (health and safety protocols), RP Phil Maton (elbow), OF Michael Brantley (shoulder)

Tigers

Out: RP Mason Englert (hip)

Starting pitchers

Framber Valdez vs. Matt Manning

Valdez looked like an AL Cy Young contender in the first half, but like much of Houston’s rotation, things have fallen apart a bit of late: The lefty has pitched to an ugly 6.18 ERA over seven starts since the All-Star break, including getting lit up for six runs on 10 hits over five innings in a loss to the Mariners last weekend. When Valdez is right, he’s sinker/curveball combination make him as tough as anyone, but the heater is catching way too much of the plate right now.

Manning, by contrast, has pitched well of late, with just one earned run allowed across 11.1 innings over his last two starts. His stuff is fairly pedestrian, though — his whiff rate and expected batting average are both in the bottom five percent of the league — and when he catches too much of the plate he can give up some very crooked numbers (he gave up 17 run in a three-start span from July 27 to August 6).

Over/Under pick

Detroit has actually had something of a pulse at the plate of late (13th in team OPS this month), and I think they’ll get to a struggling Valdez for at least a handful of runs unless the lefty’s control magically fixes itself. With Manning very vulnerable against this powerful Astros lineup — Houston has scored six or more runs in six of their last eight — I think we’ll see this over hit on Friday.

Pick: Over 9

Moneyline pick

As shaky as Valdez has been of late, Manning isn’t exactly inspiring a ton of confidence himself, and this Houston lineup just has too much firepower to back the Tigers as heavy underdogs.