Giants vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds

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04 May 2023

Giants vs Astros Prediction, Picks, Odds

It was a relatively quiet Tuesday night in Houston from an offensive standpoint, with the Giants winning 2-0 over the Astros. Our MLB betting picks expect the batters to struggle once again this afternoon.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Houston may be in trouble at home on Wednesday afternoon.

The Giants could finally be out of their funk, but the task at hand doesn’t get any easier on Wednesday with Framber Valdez on the hill for Houston. While the lefty’s numbers look good on paper, might there be some cause for concern in this one?

Let’s break down Giants vs. Astros in our MLB picks and predictions for May 3.

Giants vs Astros odds

Giants vs Astros predictions

While the Giants came away with a rare win on Tuesday night to snap a four-game losing streak, I don’t think they’ll be so lucky on Wednesday afternoon. Not against Framber Valdez, anyway.

While Valdez has struggled this season according to the expected statistics, the fact is that the Giants are awful against left-handed pitching. San Francisco is 28th of 30 teams in wRC+ within the split, striking out in an unsightly 29.3% of plate appearances and walking in just 6.8%.

But Houston has been pretty bad at the plate in its own right. Its 44 wRC+ in the last week is dead last in the league, and it would seem that a lineup that entered the season with plenty of unproven talent has finally started to show some weaknesses.

The Astros are striking out in 20.8% of plate appearances with a .191 average and .080 ISO in that span, meaning they’re simply not making good contact. Logan Webb remains one of the better pitchers in the NL West, and has looked a lot more like himself in the last two starts after a rocky beginning.

That leads me to believe that the Under hits here.

My best bet: Under 7.5 (-120 at Caesars)

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Giants vs Astros moneyline analysis

I think there’s plenty of value on the Giants here as road underdogs. We just touched on all things being relatively equal with the quality of the offenses, but I think you can make a pretty strong argument that Webb is the better of the two hurlers.

Webb has now allowed just four earned runs over his last two starts, and in that time has struck out 15 in 13 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate is back up to nearly 29%, which would represent the best figure in his career should it continue, and he’s only walked 3.4% of batters. He’s had some issues with barrels, but then again, we just noted the Astros have been making very weak contact.

The Giants have some talent on offense, and even with the arduous task of hitting a lefty, will get some help here from Valdez. The southpaw has gone backwards, watching his hard-hit rate rise back up to near 48%, and his barrel rate to a career-worst 9.8%.

Giants vs Astros Over/Under analysis

While Valdez is probably a bit vulnerable to the gopher ball here, that’s likely the only way the Giants will be scoring. My main thinking behind taking San Francisco as an underdog is that it can pop a few big hits to scratch across a few runs in a close game.

The fact that neither pitcher walks many hitters, with both starters sitting at 5% or lower in the walk department, makes me feel really good about this Under. There shouldn’t be an influx of runners on the basepaths here, and even with Valdez’s issues in the hard-hit department, he’s still rocking a high 64.3% ground ball rate.

There might be a few slip-ups from each pitcher, but in the end it should be a low-scoring affair.

Giants vs Astros game info

Giants vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Logan Webb (1-5, 4.10 ERA): The right-hander has now made six starts, and while he allowed four earned runs in three of them, he’s looked spectacular in the other three. It just so happens that two of those three have come in succession, and have led to Wednesday’s outing.

Framber Valdez (2-3, 2.54 ERA): The southpaw’s 2.54 ERA isn’t any cause for concern, but his expected ERA sits just under five runs. He’s allowed six earned over his last two outings, spanning 14 innings, perhaps pointing to the pitcher he’s really been. He’s allowed three homers in those two starts.