Astros vs. Guardians Prediction: MLB Betting Lines & Picks

The Houston Astros (59-47) and Cleveland Guardians (53-53) square off in the first of a three-game series on Monday at Minute Maid Park, at 8:10 PM ET. The Astros are coming off a series defeat to the Rays, and the Guardians a series split with the White Sox.

The Guardians (+159 underdog on the moneyline to win) visit the Astros (-190). The contest has a set total of 9.

The betting insights in what follows are based off odds valid as of July 31, 2023 at 5:24 AM ET. Ready to bet?

Astros vs Guardians Betting Lines

Astros Betting Insights

• The Astros have been favorites in 73 games this season and won 40 (54.8%) of those contests.
• Houston has a record of 17-7, a 70.8% win rate, when favored by -190 or more by oddsmakers this season.
• The implied probability of a win from the Astros, based on the moneyline, is 65.5%.
• Houston and its opponents have hit the over in 52 of its 106 games with a total this season.
• The Astros are 53-53-0 ATS in their 106 games with a spread this season.

Astros Last 10 Games Trend

Guardians Betting Insights

• The Guardians have been chosen as underdogs in 46 games this year and have walked away with the win 20 times (43.5%) in those games.
• Cleveland has played as an underdog of +159 or more just one time this year and came away with a loss in that game.
• Bookmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Guardians have a 38.6% chance of pulling out a win.
• Cleveland’s games have gone over the total in 46 of its 106 opportunities.
• The Guardians are 54-52-0 against the spread in their 106 games with a line set by sportsbooks this season.

Guardians Last 10 Games Trend

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Astros Probable Pitcher – J.P. France

• When France starts, his team is 7-7-0 against the spread this season.
• The right-hander’s last start was on Wednesday, when he tossed seven innings while giving up no earned runs on five hits in a matchup with the Texas Rangers.
• France will look to finish five or more innings for the third start in a row.
• He has three appearances this season with zero earned runs allowed out of his 14 chances this season.
• When France starts a game and his team is the favorite on the moneyline, they have a record of 6-5.
• In games France has started, his team is 8-6.
• In France’s 14 starts with a total, the teams have hit the over seven times.

Astros Relief Pitchers

Guardians Probable Pitcher – Noah Syndergaard

• Syndergaard (1-4 with a 7.16 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings pitched) gets the start for the Guardians, his 13th of the season.
• In his last time out — while pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers — the righty threw three innings against the Cincinnati Reds on Wednesday, June 7, allowing six earned runs while surrendering seven hits.
• Syndergaard is trying to secure his eighth start of five or more innings this year in this matchup.
• In one of his appearances this season he has not give up an earned run.
• The Guardians were named the moneyline underdog for three Syndergaard starts this season — they lost every time.
• Syndergaard’s team has won four of his 12 starts.
• Syndergaard has had 12 starts that oddsmakers set a total for this season, and eight of those outings finished over the total.

Guardians Relief Pitchers

Astros Hitting Trends

• The Astros are 25-9 this season in games when they hit at least two long balls.
• Houston is 16-5 in games this season when it has had at least five extra-base hits.
• The team has collected at least eight hits in 72 games this season, and is 56-16 in those contests.
• Houston is 50-9 in games this season when it put up at least five runs.
• The Astros are 24-7 in games this season when they have drawn five or more walks.

Guardians Hitting Trends

• They are 16-5 this season when they hit two or more home runs in a game.
• In 21 games with five or more extra-base hits this season, it has a record of 16-5.
• They have won 37 of the 67 games in which they’ve collected eight or more hits this season.
• Cleveland has a 33-8 record this season when scoring five or more runs in a game.
• In 24 games this season with five or more walks drawn, they’ve posted a record of 15-9

Astros vs. Guardians Prediction

Moneyline Pick: Astros (-190)
Over/Under Pick: Under (9)

Predictions are calculated by a data-driven algorithm derived from offensive performance metrics and probable starting pitchers.

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