Orioles vs. Phillies Prediction, Picks, Odds: Wednesday, 6/26
The Philadelphia Phillies needed that one.
On Tuesday, the Phillies scored two in the bottom of the ninth to pick up a 4-3 win over the Baltimore Orioles. Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm were the heroes.
Every game is important when the National League Wildcard race is so close and the Phils will try to win the series on Wednesday night.
Read on for our Orioles vs. Phillies prediction and pick.
Orioles vs. Phillies prediction: Analysis
Stuff+ is a statistic that attempts to quantify the “nastiness” of a pitch and/or arsenal based on its physical characteristics, such as velocity, movement, spin rate, release point, with 100 being league average. If you have a 100 Stuff+ rating on your fastball, you have a league-average fastball.
It’s still a relatively new statistic, but I’m buying into its value. There’s a clear correlation between Stuff+ and strikeout rates — better pitches will induce more whiffs and Swinging Strikes.
Kyle Bradish has the third-highest Stuff+ rating of any starting pitcher over the past month (128). He trails only Corbin Burnes and Graham Ashcraft, ranking ahead of Spencer Strider, Tyler Glasnow, Dylan Cease, Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole.
Bradish’s pure stuff is among the best in MLB, and the results are starting to come.
Since June 1, Bradish boasts a 2.25 ERA and a 25.5% strikeout rate. He recently took on the ever-dangerous Tampa Bay Rays and held them to two runs over six innings while inducing 13 Whiffs.
Bradish has some incredible secondaries, and he’s been using them more as the season’s progressed.
So, as you’ve probably inferred, Bradish is a guy I’m buying for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile, I’m happy to sell Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez. He has an 84 Stuff+ rating across his arsenal with zero plus pitches. His expected ERA sits in the mid-4.00s behind a rapidly declining ground-ball rate. He’s walking 8.6% of batters faced.
His Statcast profile is that of a below-average pitcher.
And that’s exactly what Suarez is.
Over the past month and by wRC+, the Orioles are a top-12 offense against left-handed pitching (i.e., Suarez), while the Phillies are a bottom-five offense against right-handed pitching (i.e., Bradish).
So, the better starting pitcher will have an easier matchup today, and the worse one will have a more-challenging road.
Which guy do you want your money riding on?
Yeah, I like the O’s too.
Bank on Bradish shutting down the Phillies while the O’s bats jump on Suarez early.
There’s a wager specifically designed for that — take the Orioles on the first five innings ML.
Orioles vs. Phillies pick
Orioles F5 ML (-106 at FanDuel)
Moneyline: Orioles (-104) vs. Phillies (-112)
Spread: Orioles -1.5 (+146) vs. Phillies +1.5 (-178)
Total: Over 9.5 (-102) | Under 9.5 (-120)
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