Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2 straight up, 3-2 against the spread) will look to bounce back from a disappointing home loss on Sunday when they host the Atlanta Falcons (3-3, 1-5) as small home favorites in a key NFC South game.

Despite falling to the Detroit Lions 20-6 last week as three-point underdogs to drop to 1-2 at home, the Buccaneers still reside atop the division as the lone team in the NFC South with a winning record.

Latest Betting Notes: Falcons

Atlanta has not scored more than 21 points in any of its last four games, totaling 13 combined in road losses to Detroit and the Jacksonville Jaguars in London during that stretch.

That is a bit concerning heading into this divisional matchup at Tampa Bay, as head coach Arthur Smith’s offense should have been able to take advantage of a defense which surrendered 40 points to the Chicago Bears the previous week.

Instead, the Falcons struggled in a 24-16 loss to the Washington Commanders after closing as 1.5-point home favorites. The backfield split between rookie running back Bijan Robinson and second-year player Tyler Allgeier does not seem to be working as well as Smith had hoped, with neither player really getting into a groove to make enough of an impact.

Latest Betting Notes: Buccaneers

The Creamsicle-themed uniforms did not do the trick last Sunday against the Lions, with the team managing just a pair of Chase McLaughlin field goals in its worst offensive performance of the season.

Surprisingly, Tampa Bay is the only team in the division to outscore its opponents overall this season, with Atlanta giving up 120 points and scoring 99. The offensively-challenged Falcons have especially struggled on the road as mentioned earlier, so points could be at a premium again in this one.

The good news for the Bucs is that they know the Falcons well and have beaten them 13 of the last 14 times when closing as favorites, going 15-5 ATS in the past 20 meetings as chalk in this series.

The Keys to Victory: Falcons

Atlanta quarterback Desmond Ridder has played better lately for the most part, but he threw three costly interceptions versus Washington and cannot afford to keep making those kinds of mistakes. Ridder has attempted an average of more than 40 passes in the last two games and finished over 300 yards each time.

That is not how Smith envisioned his offense to be at this point, so look for changes to be made to focus on running the ball more effectively and efficiently, helping take some pressure off of Ridder, who may end up getting benched sooner than later if the team does not end its 0-5 ATS skid.

The Keys to Victory: Buccaneers

Tampa Bay has lost to two 5-1 NFC teams at home, so there is certainly no shame in that. The Bucs are quite simply not at that same elite level, but they should be much more prepared for the Falcons, who are obviously a divisional foe they have enjoyed some success against.

Tampa Bay’s defense should be able to focus solely on stopping Atlanta’s running game, which the team did successfully in the loss to Detroit. The difference is that Ridder does not have the same kind of talent or experience as Lions quarterback Jared Goff, who beat the Bucs through the air with 353 passing yards.