Falcons vs. Buccaneers odds preview, game and player prop bets, best sportsbook bonus codes

Akron Beacon Journal

21 October 2023

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The Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers each look to put aside Week 6 disappointment and get back on track when they face each other in Week 7.

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It’s a race for the NFC South summit at Raymond James Stadium when the 3-3 Falcons visit the 3-2 Bucs.

The Falcons spurned a big opportunity to open up a divisional lead last week against the Washington Commanders but ended up going down 24-16 despite holding their opponents to 197 as Desmond Ridder threw three interceptions. Two of those were in enemy territory, one from Washington’s seven-yard line and the other from the Commanders’ 34.

However, Ridder’s 307-yard performance did show some reason for optimism.

Meanwhile, arguably Baker Mayfield’s worst game of the year saw Tampa Bay crash and burn in a 20-6 defeat to an admittedly impressive Detroit Lions. Mayfield and the Bucs failed to find the end zone despite playing against a Lions defense that was missing three starting players. Mayfield himself put it succinctly after the game: “We sucked.”

The Buccaneers’ defense did show up, though, holding the Lions’ offense to 100 yards fewer than their 2023 average.

It’s a tale of two quarterbacks who have been lackluster so far this year, and perhaps one of the hardest matchups to predict this week. Frankly, whichever QB can make the fewest mistakes may be the deciding factor.

Kickoff is at noon ET live on FOX, and the hosting Bucs are 2.5-point favorites.

The Buccaneers will certainly score more than the measly six points they managed in Week 6, but just how many depends on how Mayfield bounces back. Like with so much with this clash, it’s a hard call.

The total here is a low bar at 37.5, but between these two teams with struggling offenses and tough defenses, the under is 9-2 so far this season. Plus, through six weeks of action, the over has come through in games with the total set below 40 in only four instances out of 11. If either Ridder or Mayfield suddenly explodes, this could look foolish with hindsight: take the under.

Bijan Robinson has undoubtedly been one of the Falcons’ brightest stars this season. He’s averaging 66.8 rushing yards per game (401 total, 10th in the NFL) and has 26 catches for 189 yards, with two receiving touchdowns.

But he’s gone off the boil in his last outings, getting just 83 rushing yards in total across that pair of games. And he now has to face a notoriously miserly Tampa Bay run defense, which is ranked seventh in rushing yards allowed per game and 10th in yards allowed per carry. From 27 total carries in his last two games, Robinson averaged just 2.8 yards per carry against Washington and 3.3 vs. the Texans.

Atlanta’s potentially explosive rushing attack has been struggling, and Tampa Bay doesn’t seem likely to be a generous opponent. Robinson’s O/U is set at 54.5 across several sportsbooks but Caesars’ odds of +100 are easily the most generous.

Linebacker Devin White is one of the Bucs’ stellar secondary pieces, averaging 6.6 total tackles per game so far this season, slightly down from his average of over seven across the previous three seasons.

Given Ridder’s ropey displays so far, the fact the Falcons rely on short passes and a running game that gets plenty of yardage but not too many scores, and that Tampa Bay’s defense has 15 sacks to its name this season, key defensive pieces such as White should have plenty of chances to take opponents to the floor on Sunday.

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