Australia vs. Denmark: Women’s World Cup Betting Preview

Potentially bolstered by the return of star talisman Sam Kerr, Australia begins the knockout round against Group D runners-up Denmark on Monday, Aug. 7. 

In Kerr’s absence, the Matildas finished 2-0-1 (W-D-L) in the group stage. The FIFA Women’s World Cup tournament co-hosts cruised to wins over Ireland and Canada, while their lone defeat came against Group B runner-up Nigeria.

Denmark, meanwhile, captured six points in the group stage. Wins against China and Haiti proved enough to make up for their defeat against England, setting up a showdown with the Aussies. 

These two sides have recent history, meeting for a friendly in October 2022. After going down 1-0 early, Australia rallied and captured a 3-1 victory.

At DraftKings Sportsbook, Australia is a -120 favorite on the three-way moneyline. The draw is priced at +225, with Denmark sitting at +340.  The odds are subject to change.

As for the total, under 2.5 goals is a heavy favorite. As of this writing, the Under is priced at -170. 

All bets are decided at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time. Any events in extra time don’t count toward your bet. 

Australia vs. Denmark Prediction & Best Bet

Denmark Goal-Line (+0.75, -125 odds) vs. Australia

Admittedly, this is a tricky match to handicap as multiple forces drive the narrative for both teams to bag a result. 

There’s undoubtedly a home-field advantage tax built into this price for Australia, who have a clear path to victory. Their best player is returning and they have a positive history against Denmark. Without Kerr, the Matildas posted a +1.31 xGDiff per 90 minutes in the group stage, per fbref.com.

Plus, in that October meeting with the Danes, Australia won the expected goals battle 2.18 to 1.09, according to footystats.org. 

Yet, this is an Australian side that benefitted from penalty luck in the group stage. Remove their two penalties from consideration, and bettors will find their xGDiff drops to +0.76 per 90 minutes, again per fbref.com. Without those penalties, Denmark qualifies as a live underdog in the round of 16. 

Manager Lars Sondergaard’s side showed in the group stage that they can keep matches close against top sides. Although they lost to England 1-0, the expected goals battle only finished 1.1 to 0.5 in favor of the Lionesses. 

Those metrics indicated Denmark’s style of play in the group stage. Across all three matches, Denmark saw a mere 1.87 combined expected goals per 90 minutes between them and their opponents. 

If this round-of-16 fixture proves to be a low-scoring event, as the oddsmakers expect, that could allow Denmark to stay within striking distance. Traditionally, favorites tend to do well in matches that go over the total. 

Kerr’s return is worrisome for bettors, but the Denmark defense is no joke. 

Worst-case scenario, expect the underdogs to do no worse than a one-goal defeat. Even if they lose the match, bettors would still return half their wager with this bet.

Depending on where the money goes, we’d back the underdogs at -110 or better on the Asian spread.

Photo by George Hitchens/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images