Australia vs. England FIFA Women’s World Cup: Odds, Lines & Best Bet

In the second of two semifinals at the FIFA Women’s World Cup, Australia prepares to battle England. 

England, who currently sits at +190 to win the tournament at BetMGM Sportsbook, experienced a relatively easy quarterfinal. The Lionesses cruised past Colombia 2-1 while winning the expected goals battle 1.5 to 0.5. 

As for Australia, the journey to this stage proved more difficult. In the quarterfinals against France, manager Tony Gustavsson’s side advanced 7-6 on penalty kicks following a 0-0 draw in regular time. 

Kicking off Wednesday at 6 a.m. ET, England is a +135 favorite on the three-way moneyline and is -155 to advance. Australia sits at +210 to win in regular time and is a +110 underdog to advance. 

The draw moneyline for regular time is priced at +200 while the Over/Under is 1.5 goals, juiced -190 to the Over. 

All bets are settled at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time. If the game goes to extra time, events don’t count toward your bet, unless you bet the “to advance” market. 

Australia vs. England FIFA Women’s World Cup Prediction 

Same-Game Parlay: England Double Chance (Win or Tie) & Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105) 

These sides met not too long ago, with Australia earning a 2-0 victory in an April friendly. That doesn’t mean Australia truly outplayed their opponent, however. According to footystats.org, England won that match 1.5 to 0.94 on expected goals. 

Even though Australia is playing a home match, England should do no worse than a result at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time. For the entire tournament, manager Sarina Wiegman has guided her side to a +0.97 expected goal differential per 90 minutes. 

Australia, meanwhile, has posted inferior underlying metrics. Entering this semifinal clash, they own a +0.77 expected goal differential per 90 minutes, again per fbref.com. 

As the competition has stiffened, however, Australia has struggled to keep pace with England. In the last match against France, they lost the expected goals battle 2.0 to 1.6. 

In the round of 16 against Denmark, they won 2-0 but produced a +0.4 expected goals differential for the match. 

Given those statistical outputs and the fact that they lost the expected goals battle in April, it’s difficult to foresee a scenario where Australia wins the match at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time. 

Regarding the second element of our same-game parlay, this is largely a play on the England defense. Only one side in this tournament – Nigeria – has surpassed one expected goal against the Lionesses. However, they needed extra time to do so. 

Even though Australia surrendered two expected goals to France, that includes extra time. For the first 90 minutes, they allowed only two big scoring chances on 14 shots. 

With home support behind them, expect a strong enough performance from the Australia defense to keep this match close. 

Add in the fact that England’s attack enters Wednesday’s meeting as a negative regression candidate with 10 goals off 8.8 expected, and we’ll back this same-game parlay at -115 odds or better.

Photo by Justin Setterfield/Getty Images