Women’s World Cup: Australia vs. Nigeria: Odds, Picks & Best Bets
Looking to capture their second straight win to open the tournament, FIFA Women’s World Cup co-host Australia battles Nigeria in Group B.
Despite operating without Sam Kerr for most of the match, Australia captured a 1-0 win over Ireland on Matchday One. Although Australia failed to cover as goal-and-a-half favorites, a Canada draw left the Aussies atop Group B.
As for Nigeria, they notched a point in a 0-0 draw against Canada. It wasn’t without some fortune, however, as Canada’s Christine Sinclair missed a penalty to keep the match level.
Australia is a -260 three-way moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook ahead of Thursday’s 6 a.m. ET kickoff. The draw is priced at +350, while Nigeria is a +700 underdog.
Oddsmakers expect a low-scoring match with under 2.5 total goals juiced to -140 odds.
Australia vs. Nigeria Women’s World Cup Prediction
Australia Win to Nil (+100) – BetRivers Sportsbook
Even without Kerr at full strength, Australia should cruise against a Nigeria side that’s struggled against top opposition.
Although they managed goals in three straight games before the World Cup, Nigeria failed to score in five of their preceding six matches. Included in that sample are two shutouts by the United States Women’s National Team.
It’s simultaneously worrisome that Nigeria’s attack failed to create much against teams weaker than Australia, the 10th-ranked team in the world. Against Columbia, Mexico and Japan, Nigeria generated 0.93 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to footystats.org.
Conversely, Australia’s defense has held up well against top opposition. In two pre-tournament meetings against England and France, the Aussies held both teams to clean sheets while surrendering 1.32 expected goals per 90 minutes.
Perhaps it’s an oversimplification, but Nigeria should undoubtedly create less than that. Entering this match, Nigeria sits 40th in the FIFA ratings, while England and France are both top-five sides.
If Australia takes an early lead, they can sit back and force Nigeria to go for it. Unlike Canada, manager Tony Gustavsson’s side should take an early advantage.
When you consider how Nigeria’s defense performs against top sides, the results aren’t encouraging. In an October match against Japan, they surrendered 1.73 expected goals.
Plus, in the first match of a two-leg tie with the USWNT, they conceded 2.09 expected goals, per footystats.org.
Despite holding Canada to 0.7 non-penalty expected goals in their first fixture, Nigeria should encounter a different side with home support behind them.
As a result, the real question for this fixture is whether Nigeria bags a goal. Considering their weak offensive output against Canada (0.5 expected goals) and the fact that the both teams to score – “no”prop bet is a -175 favorite (63.6% implied probability), we’ll bet against it.
Considering those factors, bettors should look to this market if it remains available at -110 odds or better.
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