Australia vs. South Korea: World Baseball Classic Odds, Picks and Predictions

Australia vs. South Korea Odds

On Wednesday, Australia and South Korea will begin their portion of pool play for the World Baseball Classic when they meet at the Tokyo Dome on FS1 at 10:00 p.m. EST.

Australia is 2-10 all-time in this tournament, but they did manage a ninth place finish in the 2017 event. South Korea is 15-7 all-time in the Classic, with two top-three finishes in four events.

Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers are expecting a lopsided matchup between these two teams, pricing South Korea as substantial -660 favorites on the moneyline, with over/under on the total set at eight runs.

Australia

Australia offense lacking high-end talent

Though having MLB talent is not a prerequisite to experiencing success in the World Baseball Classic, it is notable that Australia has zero hitters from either the KBO or the MLB. Instead, this lineup features an abundance of minor league hitters, in addition to members from the Australian Baseball League (AUBL).

Jarryd Dale, who played part of last season at AAA in the minor leagues is the closest any of the minor leaguers have made it to the big leagues. In 134 games played in 2022, Dale had a disappointing .579 OPS. His main threat is on the basepaths, where he stole 27 bases across two levels of competition.

O’Loughlin earns the start on the mound

Jack O’Loughlin, a minor leaguer from the Detroit Tigers farm system, will get the nod for Australia in their first pool play action in 2023. O’Loughlin posted a 4.01 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP in 51.2 innings at the A+ level of the minor leagues in 2022. He struggled with his command, owning an 11.9% walk-rate. His inability to throw strikes could be a major problem against a South Korea lineup that rarely strikes out and is adept at getting deep into counts.

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South Korea

Other rosters, such as the United States and Dominican Republic, are getting much of the media attention for their star-studded lineups. However, there are reasonable arguments to be made that South Korea’s offense is every bit as capable of plating runs in this year’s event.

South Korea’s lineup features multiple MLB contributors, with Tommy Edman from the St. Louis Cardinals and Ha-Seong Kim from the San Diego Padres – both of whom played 150 games or more for their respective clubs last summer.

The lineup also features a number of impressive KBO players, such as ByungHo Park, who hit 35 home runs and compiled a .909 OPS last year. Overall, this group has enormous power potential, while still having elite contact skills and an ability to be aggressive on the bases due to their plus-speed.

Young Pyo Ko gets the ball

Young Pyo Ko threw 182.1 innings last year in the KOB, finishing with a 3.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 20.6% strikeout percentage, and a 3.0% walk-rate. He is the perfect pitcher to hand the ball to this evening, facing an Australia lineup that has the ability to work the count. Despite Australia’s lack of overall intimidating bats, they do have eight players on their roster who walked at a rate north of 10.0% last season in their respective league. Ko, who has excellent command, should be able to limit this strength on Wednesday.

Australia vs. South Korea – Picks & Predictions

Tonight’s game will be played at the Tokyo Dome, which has hosted a record 30 World Baseball Classic contests since the inception of this event. In those 30 games, the average game total has ended with over 10 runs scored. In that span, 20 of those affairs have resulted in at least eight runs being scored between the two clubs in action.

This evening, bettors can expect this trend to continue, with South Korea’s offense likely being responsible for the majority of the damage. Take the over in this spot.

PICK: Over 8 (-105, DraftKings)