Az Diamondbacks’ improbable World Series run continues to defy odds at sportsbooks
The Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers were both 100-loss teamsin 2021. A short two seasons later, they now find themselves playing thepart of one of baseball’s underdog stories.
The preseason odds for a Rangers-Diamondbacks World Series matchup were listed at +175000, or a 1 in 1,750 chance, making this the most unlikely World Series matchup of all time.
From day one, hardly anyone, including oddsmakers, would havepredicted the Diamondbacks to win the National League pennant andcompete for a title in 2023.
Arizona opened the season at +6000 odds (1.6% implied probability) towin the National League and +12500 (0.8% implied probability) to winthe World Series, according to BetMGM.
Compare that to the Rangers, who opened the season at +2500 (3.8%implied probability) to win the American League and +4600 (2.1% impliedprobability) to lift The Commissioner’s Trophy.
Ahead of Friday’s Game 1 of the World Series at Globe Life Field, theodds for the Diamondbacks and Rangers to meet in the Fall Classic havebeen on a bit of an up-and-down journey for both teams throughout theregular season and even during the postseason.
Snakes alive
Aside from the direct betting odds, it’s incredibly rare for a teamwith 85 or fewer regular season wins to reach the World Series.
Only one team – the 2006 Cardinals – has won a World Series with 84or fewer regular-season wins. The World Series is one thing, but theDiamondbacks are now just the sixth team in history to qualify for thepostseason with 85 or fewer wins.
A contributing factor to the Diamondbacks’ not-so-greatregular-season record in comparison to traditional playoff teams was a16-34 stretch from June 11 to Aug. 13. Of course, they bounced back, buta 16-34 clip is the all-time worst 50-game stretch of any team to win apennant.
The odds for the Diamondbacks to win the World Series jumped from+2250 to +8400 after the 16-34 run, but the race wasn’t quite out ofreach yet.
“It’s really impressive that they were kind of able to flip a switch,” said Caleb Wilfinger, deputy editor at Pickswise.“We’ve seen other teams in the past do it, but those teams did not gothrough as much regular-season turmoil as the Diamondbacks did.”
The Diamondbacks more than just bounced back, going on a 26-14 runover a 40-game stretch directly after the 16-34 run that nearly knockedthem out of playoff contention.
Furthermore, the Diamondbacks were outscored by 15 runs in theregular season. Only one other team – the 1987 Twins – has won the WorldSeries with a negative run differential in the regular season.
“Run differential is a huge thing for MLB handicappers,” Wilfingersaid. “Usually that’s a very predictive stat. In the postseason, ifyou’ve gotten there, if your run differential is negative, you’reprobably going to eventually hit that regression against really goodcompetition.”
The list of crazy facts and stats related to this remarkable playoff run goes on and on.
From an individual standpoint, the Diamondbacks are the fifth team inhistory to reach the World Series with a rookie leading the team inWAR. Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll led the team with a 6.2 WARthis season and has posted a .295 batting average in the playoffs.
‘Can you take me higher?’
Not only is this the Rangers’ first World Series trip since they lostback-to-back title chances in 2010 and 2011, but this is also theirfirst winning season in seven years.
“They were supposed to be a barely above .500 team,” Wilfinger said.“Based on most people’s projections, they were supposed to be athird-place team in that division based on the Astros and the Marinerssuccess last season.”
The Rangers hadn’t had an All-Star starter since their World Seriesroster over a decade ago yet managed to become only the fourth team inMLB history with five starters in a nine-man roster at the MidsummerClassic this year.
Similar to the Diamondbacks with Carroll and rookie pitcher BrandonPfaadt, Texas has had some help from youngsters during this playoffpush. September call-up Evan Carter became the youngest player ever at21 years old to reach base safely 13 or more times in a five-gamestretch in the postseason during the Rangers’ ALDS win over the Orioles.
Carter hasn’t been the only late-season boost for this Rangers squad.Of course, signing household-name stars like Corey Seager, MarcusSemien, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom was a significant part of theRangers’ surprising year, but a rather unexpected 1990s band has fueledthe fire in the Rangers clubhouse this postseason.
As did Arizona, Texas also had a rough stretch en route to the FallClassic. The Rangers went 4-16 from Aug. 16 to Sept. 8, which is thesecond-worst 20-game stretch from a team to win a pennant in MLBhistory.
The reason for the turnaround stems from listening to Creed songs inthe locker room before games, particularly the song “Higher,” according to Rangers pitcher Andrew Heaney.
In all seriousness, this is another club that not a lot of people expected to see in the Fall Classic.
Since the club officially moved to Arlington in 1974, the Rangers hadonly reached the championship series twice in franchise history beforethis year and held a 21-31 record in the playoffs before this year’srun.
The average regular season win total of 87 games between the twoclubs is now the lowest average win total for World Series opponentsever.
Tale of the tape
So, with two otherworldly underdogs reaching the World Series, how do the Diamondbacks’ odds fare this time around?
Arizona has been the odds-on underdog in every single playoff gamethis postseason and that isn’t expected to change against the Rangers.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the series price listed at -175, or 63.6%implied probability, on the Rangers while the Diamondbacks were given+150 odds, 40% implied probability, to win the title.
As for the exact outcome, odds suggest that the Rangers winning theseven-game series 4-2 is the most likely outcome, with a 20.4% impliedprobability based on the +390 odds.
The good news for Arizona is that history is on its side. TheMilwaukee Brewers have reached the postseason nine times in franchisehistory, and all nine times the team to eliminate them from the playoffshas gone on to win the NL pennant. Six of the previous eight teams wenton to win the World Series.
Being that the Diamondbacks eliminated Milwaukee in the wild-cardround earlier this month, they are looking to be the next team on thatlist to win the championship.
With Zac Gallen earning the starting nod on the mound in Game 1, theDiamondbacks enter Friday’s matchup as +135 underdogs (42.6% impliedprobability). First pitch is set for 5:03 p.m. MST as the Diamondbacksbegin the hunt for their first World Series win since 2001.
