Azerbaijan Grand Prix betting tips: F1 preview, picks and analysis

As part of our new F1 preview package, Louis will return on Saturday with a post-qualifying look at the markets. Get more from Louis at f1tipster.com.

Formula One betting tips: Azerbaijan Grand Prix

1pt e.w. Sergio Perez to win the Azerbaijan GP at 9/2 (General 1/3 1,2)

1pt Albon to win qualifying group (v Ocon, Gasly & Norris)at 11/2 (bet365)

0.5pt both Williams to win their qualifying groups at 70/1 (bet365)

3pts Zhou to beat Bottas in the 2023 Drivers' Championship at 9/2 (bet365)

Sergio Perez to win the Azerbaijan GP

SERGIO PEREZ is the king of Baku and I still expect Red Bull to be clear at the head of the field with their straight line speed put to full use here.

Perez has performed better in Baku than he has at any other circuit throughout his career. He has a first and second in both of his Red Bull drives at the track and also finished on the podium for Force India in 2018.

Given Red Bull's dominance so far, I'm happy to take 9/2 each-way for Perez to win the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, with win-only exchange prices of 7.0 and upwards also worth considering. Baku always produces drama (it's 11/10 for a red flag) and I wouldn't fancy backing anyone at 2/5 to win here even if it is Max Verstappen.

With there being four weeks between races so early in the season we cannot have confidence that the previous three will be a strong indicator for each team's performance this weekend.

During this part of the season teams are rapidly developing their cars and bringing upgrades each week. With four weeks having passed since the Melbourne Grand Prix, many teams could be bringing upgrades in the next few weeks so it would be wise to factor this into your staking plans.

Practice, qualifying and sprint sessions should give us a better idea of the running order behind Red Bull before lights out on Sunday.

Albon to win qualifying group v Ocon, Gasly and Norris

Williams will be hopeful of a strong weekend and ALEX ALBON out-qualified everyone in this group at the Melbourne Grand Prix. Williams will be more confident this weekend because the Baku circuit favours their low downforce package over Melbourne. Their straight line speed will be an asset here.

Albon looks comfortable and confident in this car whereas his rivals in this group are not comfortable in qualifying trim. The Alpines have struggled to get into Q3 so far and the McLaren is in desperate need of an upgrade to be competitive, so 11/2 is too big a price for Albon proving the pick of the quartet.

Albon’s teammate LOGAN SARGEANT has been matched up against that Haas drivers and Oscar Piastri. Sargeant enjoyed a strong qualifying performance in Bahrain and had set competitive lap times before they were cruelly deleted in Saudi Arabia.

Given the the related contingency of both Williams winning their groups I will also back the double at 70/1.

Zhou to beat Bottas in Drivers' Championship

Although he only has two points, ZHOU GUANYU has started this season in much stronger form than he showed all through 2022.

He has had three solid midfield performances so far this year showing his consistency, meanwhile Valtteri Bottas had a strong race in Bahrain followed by two poor weekends in Saudi Arabia and Australia. Zhou is clearly more motivated than Bottas at the moment. Having gone from the best car on the grid in 2021 to one of the worst today, you couldn’t really blame Bottas for it, either.

After the Australian GP, Xevi Pujolar, Alfa Romeo's head of trackside engineering praised Zhou, saying: "I think Zhou is raising the game. And I would say now they are both quite even." He also stated Zhou has more confidence than he did last year and these two are currently heading in opposite directions.

Based on what we’ve seen so far and these comments, I make Zhou much shorter to beat Bottas over the season than the 9/2 on offer with bet365 (Sky Bet quote 4/1 which is also more than acceptable).

Bookies have reflected this in qualifying match bets by pricing them as a coin flip, but have not done so in the outright betting for the season. Bottas holds a two-point lead over Zhou after the opening three races but with 20 remaining it's all to play for.

Posted at 2210 on 26/04/23

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