Azerbaijan Grand Prix Picks, Predictions, Odds: Verstappen, Perez to Show Out Once Again?

The stars of Formula 1 are back in action this weekend in the Middle East. Azerbaijan’s capital city of Baku is set to host the annual Azerbaijan Grand Prix this Sunday. For those of us in the States, the race will go green early in the morning, so make sure to set your alarms!

The last time F1 visited Azerbaijan a year ago, Red Bull Racing-RBPT stole the show. Max Verstappen obliterated the field to win the Azerbaijan GP by more than 20 seconds over teammate, Sergio Perez. Another 25-plus seconds separated Perez from Mercedes’ George Russell, who rounded out the podium in third. 

Will anybody have anything for the Red Bull duo this year? If qualifying is any indication, Ferrari looks to have the best shot. After beating out Verstappen in Friday’s session, Charles Leclerc will aim to capitalize on his pole starting position. Meanwhile, teammate Carlos Sainz will be joining Perez on Row 2 after qualifying fourth.

Here are our best bets and 2023 Azerbaijan GP predictions for Sunday’s action at the Baku City Circuit (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Azerbaijan Grand Prix picks to win

• Outright winner: Sergio Perez (+340 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐
• 2-pick podium parlay: Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez (-174 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Head-to-head matchup: Valterri Bottas (-140 via BetMGM) vs. Guanyu Zhou ⭐⭐

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Azerbaijan Grand Prix odds

Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions

Outright winner: Sergio Perez (+340 via PointsBet) ⭐⭐

Picking a driver who isn’t starting on the front row to win outright admittedly comes with some risk. However, when said driver is operating a powerful Red Bull Racing-RBPT ride, one could argue that it is a risk worth taking. 

After taking the checkered flag in Saturday morning’s sprint race, Perez asserted himself as the second choice on the betting board behind teammate and odds-on favorite, Verstappen. Laying juice on a race winner is hardly ideal, making it difficult to back Verstappen in the outright market. His Red Bull Racing cohort is a different story. 

Perez was runner-up to Verstappen in last year’s race after winning outright himself in 2021. It’s worth noting that no driver has won the Azerbaijan Grand Prix in back-to-back years. Perez’s performance in the sprint race, second-row starting spot and history of success in Baku combine to make him an appealing bet for Sunday’s main race.

In addition, the price discrepancy across the betting market cannot be overlooked. PointsBet’s +340 line on Perez to win offers considerable value when compared to other sportsbooks. His outright odds sit as low as +275 elsewhere.

2-pick podium parlay: Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez (-174 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

In case it wasn’t clear already, riding with the Red Bull Racing-RBPT duo is the primary betting strategy for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. Verstappen and Perez thoroughly dominated this race a year ago. As mentioned in the intro, Verstappen won over his teammate by over 20 seconds. Meanwhile, Perez was second by over 25 seconds to third-place finisher, George Russell.

After solid qualifying and sprint race showings, both Red Bull drivers are firmly positioned to once again finish on the podium. Having the best equipment in the field will only help matters. If Verstappen and Perez can simply stay out of trouble and maintain their positioning, both drivers should finish in the top-3.

As for pricing, FanDuel is the preferred sportsbook to place this podium finish parlay. The nice thing about it is that even if, say, Charles Leclerc is able to surprise the field and capitalize on his pole starting position, finishes of second and third for the Red Bull Racing-RBPT drivers would still cash this ticket.

How does this outlook compare to other shops in the market? Consider that a bet on Verstappen and Perez to both finish top-2 at BetMGM carries -175 odds. Thus, FanDuel’s offering not only is a cent cheaper, but it adds an entire finishing position’s worth of security.

Head-to-head matchup: Valtteri Bottas (-140 via BetMGM) vs. Guanyu Zhou ⭐⭐

Among the interesting head-to-head matchups for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix is this battle between the two Alfa Romeo teammates. Valtteri Bottas will line up 14th on the starting grid for Sunday morning’s race while Guanyu Zhou will be one row back in 16th.

What makes this head-to-head so compelling is the fact that Bottas won the Azerbaijan GP outright back in 2019. Of course, that win came while he was driving for Mercedes and will be almost impossible to replicate in his current ride. That said, Bottas still managed to score an 11th-place showing in last year’s race.

On the flip side, Zhou was forced to retire from the 2022 Azerbaijan GP and failed to see the finish. Zhou did finish slightly better in Saturday morning’s sprint race, but Bottas certainly has a more favorable and extensive history when it comes to navigating the Batu City Circuit over the course of a full-distance event.

Compared to other shops listing this same prop, BetMGM’s -140 price on Bottas offers a few extra cents of value.

Azerbaijan Grand Prix info

• Date: Sunday, April 30, 7 a.m. ET
• Location: Baku City Circuit, Baku, Azerbaijan
• TV: ESPN
• Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Azerbaijan GP picks made 4/29/23 at 12 p.m. ET

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