Bears vs. Commanders Parlay: SGP Odds, Predictions for TNF

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05 October 2023

Bears vs. Commanders Parlay: SGP Odds, Predictions for TNF

We’re banking on Washington to throw all over this poor Chicago pass defense in our Bears-Commanders SGP predictions based on the best NFL odds from the best sports betting apps.

Although they produced a better showing offensively in Week 4, the Bears (0-4) head into FedEx Field on Thursday still seeking their first win of 2023.

Meanwhile, the Commanders (2-2) will look to throw early and often against a Bears secondary that's been one of the league's worst through the early portion of the campaign.

To complement your Bears vs. Commanders predictions, we're also evaluating this matchup with our Bears-Commanders prop picks, NFL props for Week 5, and Justin Fields props.

Here are our best Bears-Commanders SGP predictions (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bears vs. Commanders parlay for TNF

(Odds via Caesars)

Sam Howell Over 242.5 passing yards (-117) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sam Howell Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+104) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Cole Kmet Over 3.5 receptions (+126) ⭐⭐⭐

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

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SGP predictions for Bears vs. Commanders

Sam Howell Over 242.5 passing yards (-117 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bears rank 29th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game in 2023 after surrendering an average of 267.8 yards per matchup through the air. Sam Howell has cleared that yardage mark twice in four contests, passing for north of 290 yards on both occasions.

$1,000 First Bet on Caesars

After keeping the Commanders competitive during a Week 4 overtime loss in Philly, Howell should be up to the task of compiling gaudy numbers against a woeful Chicago defense.

DraftKings and Caesars list Howell’s passing yardage total at 242.5 yards with odds of -115 and -117, respectively. That makes FanDuel the preferable spot to bet this prop, as Howell’s passing yardage line is listed at 239.5 with -110 odds on Over.

Sam Howell Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Chicago defense has been permitting an average of 2.5 passing touchdowns per game in 2023. Only the Denver Broncos are allowing more passing scores.

While Howell has only cleared this line once in four games, attacking through the air in the red zone has been the most consistently successful method of operation against this Bears defense. Chicago has allowed 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game, too. But expecting at least three total TDs from Washington's offense is realistic with the team facing a point total of 26.5.

DraftKings is featuring Howell’s passing touchdown total at O/U 1.5 with +105 odds on the Over. That’s better than the odds at FanDuel (+102) and Caesars (+104) on the same line, so we’ll need to incorporate our third leg before deciding where to bet on this parlay.

Cole Kmet Over 3.5 receptions (+126 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

It had been a slow start to the season for Justin Fields and the Bears' offense over the first three weeks, but the unit seemed to find some rhythm in Week 4 despite losing to the Broncos. Fields passed for a season-high 335 yards and four touchdowns.

While Denver’s abysmal defense is partially responsible for the uptick in performance, that outing should provide Chicago’s coaching staff with a better blueprint. And in Fields’ mind, it should establish Cole Kmet as a stable target. The tight end hauled in seven receptions and two touchdowns, clearing the 3.5-reception mark for the third time in four games.

Although Washington has been stingy against the tight end position, Kmet is too important to Chicago's offense for Fields to ignore. DraftKings edges out FanDuel on the odds for this prop (+110 to +108) and for the overall parlay (+480 to +465). But with the whopping +126 odds on Kmet’s prop, Caesars takes the cake at +570 for this SGP.

Bears-Commanders SGP picks made 10/5/2023 at 1:15 p.m. ET.