Commanders vs. Patriots Predictions, Picks, Odds Week 9

Our Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots predictions based on the best NFL odds envision a high-level passing day for Patriots quarterback Mac Jones at home.

The New England Patriots (2-6) came crashing back down to earth last week as their win over the Buffalo Bills appears to have been a one-hit wonder in an otherwise disappointing season.

But while back home to face the Washington Commanders (3-5), New England's passing attack could put on a show against one of the league's most generous secondaries.

NFL Week 9 predictions and NFL best bets, along with our Week 9 NFL props to accompany your best Commanders vs. Patriots prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Commanders vs. Patriots prediction

Mac Jones Over 222.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

Patriots quarterback Mac Jones has been decidedly inconsistent as a passer this season, but Sunday against the Commanders could match the conditions needed to see the New England quarterback thrive. Jones has cleared this week’s line on his passing yardage only three times in eight games on the year, but all three of those occasions in which he was successful came in Patriots’ home games.

The only home game in which Jones did not meet this passing threshold came against the best statistical passing defense of the four teams New England has faced in Foxborough; New Orleans held Jones to 110 passing yards in keeping with its seventh-ranked pass defense.

The Commanders do not boast a Top 10 passing defense. In fact, the Washington defense isn’t even Top 25. It’s barely Top 30. The Commanders rank 29th in the NFL, allowing 256.8 passing yards per game.

Over the past five weeks, Washington has allowed every opposing starting quarterback it has faced to eclipse 275 passing yards. Philadelphia Eagles Jalen Hurts accomplishing it twice in that span was probably expected. Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields, New York Giants QB Tyrod Taylor, and Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder, all putting up big numbers against the Commanders' secondary, is cause to send up a smoke flare. At his current lines at our best sportsbooks, Mac Jones is a strong value for passing volume in Week 9.

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Commanders vs. Patriots best odds

FanDuel: Mac Jones Over 222.5 passing yards (-114)

As of Friday morning, Jones’ prop could be found at 218.5 yards across our recommended sportsbooks. The line jumped to 223.5 at most of our best sportsbooks on Friday afternoon.

As of this writing, FanDuel offers a slight edge on the odds with -114 odds on Over 222.5 passing yards. We’ll consider Jones' prop a three-star recommendation for 229.5 passing yards

Commanders vs. Patriots odds

The Patriots opened as 2.5-point favorites and have remained at that line at some of our best sportsbooks while moving to -3 at other of our best betting sites. 45% of wagers have come in on New England.

The total opened at 39 and increased to 40.5 and 41 across our recommended sportsbooks. Only 34% of wagers have come in on the Over.

Commanders vs. Patriots game info

• When: Sunday, Nov. 5, at 1:00 p.m. ET
• Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
• How to watch: FOX

Weather: 57 Degrees, 9 mph Winds, 1% Precipitation

Commanders-Patriots prediction made Friday at 3:40 p.m. ET

NFL betting odds pages

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