Belgian Grand Prix 2023 Predictions, Odds & Picks

The 2023 Formula 1 season is officially at its halfway point, with Max Verstappen casually strolling to a third straight title thanks to a win streak that was extended to seven this past weekend at the Hungarian Grand Prix. Is an eighth consecutive win ahead at this Sunday’s Belgian Grand Prix?

In Hungary, Verstappen was edged out for the pole by Lewis Hamilton. But the defending champion immediately grabbed the lead in the race, then went on to win by over half a minute ahead of fellow podium finishers Lando Norris and Sergio Perez.

Verstappen is heavily favored to win at Spa, but will the McLaren duo of Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri continue their recent surge?

Before tackling this week’s race predictions and picks, let’s take a look at the Belgian Grand Prix odds. Odds are courtesy of Bovada, which offers a wealth of odds for every Formula 1 and NASCAR race.

Odds to Win the 2023 Belgian Grand Prix

Odds are via Bovada as of Thursday, July 27, 2023.

• Max Verstappen (Red Bull) -350
• Lando Norris (McLaren) +1000
• Lewis Hamilton (Merecedes) +1200
• Sergio Perez (Red Bull) +1200
• George Russell (Mercedes) +2200
• Oscar Piastri (McLaren) +2500
• Carlos Sainz (Ferrari) +4000
• Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) +4000
• Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin) +4000
• Lance Stroll (Aston Martin) +25000

Belgian Grand Prix Predictions and Picks

This weekend, the sprint format returns, so that will add an extra layer of spice to the weekend.

Unlike previous seasons, sprint events this season are separate from qualifying. As such, they do not have a bearing on the starting grid for the race. So, there’s every possibility that someone other than Verstappen could be on pole for the second straight race.

How much will that matter in the end? Likely very little, but Lando Norris is +900 to be the fastest qualifier for the Belgian Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton, meanwhile, is +1000 to score his second straight pole. Both of those are worthy of consideration.

As for the Belgian Grand Prix itself, will we see Verstappen record the fastest lap for the fourth straight race and the seventh time all season?

At Bovada, he is -150 to record the fastest lap, -140 to have the fastest lap and win the race, and +140 to claim pole position, the fastest lap, and the race win.

Verstappen isn’t the only driver of Belgian parentage looking to have a successful weekend at Spa. Norris will head into the weekend after logging back-to-back second-place finishes at the British Grand Prix and Hungarian Grand Prix, as well as a fourth-place finish at the Austrian Grand Prix prior to that.

McLaren had a horrid start this season, but things are really looking up for them now. In addition to Norris’s podiums, Oscar Piastri finished fourth and fifth in the past two races.

At different points of the season, multiple teams have made a case to be the second-best team on the grid. For a while, it was Aston Martin, but Fernando Alonso has only one podium finish in five races.

Then it looked like things were on the upswing for Mercedes. Hamilton and George Russell were second and third in the Spanish Grand Prix, and Hamilton added further podiums at the Canadian Grand Prix and British Grand Prix.

Now McLaren look the flavor of the moment. If you want to strike while the iron is hot, they are -125 to have both drivers finish in the top six in the Belgian Grand Prix.

Current Formula 1 World Drivers’ Championship Standings (Through 11 of 22 Races)

• Max Verstappen – 281 points
• Sergio Perez – 171
• Fernando Alonso – 139
• Lewis Hamilton – 133
• George Russell – 90
• Carlos Sainz Jr. – 87
• Charles Leclerc – 80
• Lando Norris – 60
• Lance Stroll – 45
• Esteban Ocon – 31
• Oscar Piastri – 27
• Pierre Gasly – 16

Where else can you find solid betting value for Belgian Grand Prix weekend?

While things have been disappointing for Aston Martin as of late, their odds to have both Alonso and Lance Stroll–who, like Verstappen and Norris, has a Belgian mother–finish in the top ten are rather interesting.

Alonso has finished in the top ten in every race this season, while Stroll, who finished tenth in the Hungarian Grand Prix, has finished in the top ten seven times in 11 races in 2023. With that in mind, +160 for the double top ten is too good to pass up.

Should there be any optimism about a good weekend for Sergio Perez?

The rollercoaster continues for Checo, which is far from ideal. After finishing sixth at Silverstone, he finished third at the Hungaroring. However, he had to hold off a hard-charging Hamilton at the end.

If Perez’s recent results–16th, 4th, 6th, 3rd, 6th, and 3rd–are an indication of how things will go for him at Spa, he will not finish on the Belgian Grand Prix podium.

Speaking of Hamilton, he produced a heck of a lap to take his first pole since 2021. Unfortunately, his car still appears to be well short of what is required to seriously challenge for a race win or consistent podiums, much to his dismay.

Is he worth a play at +150 to finish in the top three? You can never count him out, but with how frustrating his car has been, my recommendation is a small play only.

This will be the last F1 race until the Dutch Grand Prix on August 27. In the meantime, there will be plenty going on each week and weekend in the sports world, from the Women’s World Cup to the NFL preseason to multiple notable MMA and boxing events, as well as plenty of MLB action every day.

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