F1 United States Grand Prix 2023 Predictions & Picks

The F1 title race is officially done and dusted, but with five races still left on the calendar, there’s still a lot of action to look forward to. This weekend, the action will be at the Circuit of the Americas in Austin, Texas for the United States Grand Prix.

There’s a sprint shootout and a sprint race to look forward to today, but the 56-lap main event will take place tomorrow afternoon (3:00 pm ET, ABC).

In the last round in Qatar, Max Verstappen clinched his third consecutive championship in the sprint race then went on to claim his 14th win of the season.

If he wants to make it fifteen, he will have a bit more work to do than he often has this season. In qualifying yesterday, he came in sixth behind pole winner Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Lewis Hamilton, Carlos Sainz Jr., and George Russell.

F1 United States Grand Prix Starting Grid

1. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)
2. Lando Norris (McLaren)
3. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)
4. Carlos Sainz Jr. (Ferrari)
5. George Russell (Mercedes)
6. Max Verstappen (Red Bull)
7. Pierre Gasly (Alpine)
8. Esteban Ocon (Alpine)
9. Sergio Perez (Red Bull)
10. Oscar Piastri (McLaren)

The rest: Yuki Tsunoda (AlphaTauri), Guanyu Zhou (Alfa Romeo), Valtteri Bottas (Alfa Romeo), Kevin Magnussen (Haas), Daniel Ricciardo (AlphaTauri), Nico Hulkenberg (Haas), Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin), Alexander Albon (Williams), Lance Stroll (Aston Martin), Logan Sargeant (Williams)

Will someone not named Max Verstappen win a race for only the fourth time this season? Despite his starting position, United States Grand Prix winner odds still have Verstappen as the favorite, which underlines just how dominant he has been in 2023.

Odds to Win the 2023 F1 United States Grand Prix

Odds are via Bovada.

• Max Verstappen -175
• Charles Leclerc +600
• Lando Norris +600
• Lewis Hamilton +600
• George Russell +2500
• Carlos Sainz Jr. +3300
• Sergio Perez +4000
• Oscar Piastri +6600
• Esteban Ocon +10000
• Pierre Gasly +10000

United States Grand Prix Predictions and Picks

If ever you want to bet on Verstappen as the race winner, this is the weekend to do it, given how long his odds are relative to most of the other races this season.

Since the United States Grand Prix returned to the F1 calendar and began being held at COTA in 2012, the polesitter has taken the win five times in ten races.

Recent United States Grand Prix Race Winners

• 2022: Max Verstappen
• 2021: Max Verstappen (polesitter)
• 2020: not held
• 2019: Valtteri Bottas (polesitter)
• 2018: Kimi Raikkonen
• 2017: Lewis Hamilton (polesitter)
• 2016: Lewis Hamilton (polesitter)
• 2015: Lewis Hamilton
• 2014: Lewis Hamilton
• 2013: Sebastian Vettel (polesitter)
• 2012: Lewis Hamilton

Of Leclerc’s five career F1 wins, four have come when he was the polesitter. The only one that didn’t was his win at last year’s Austrian Grand Prix, where he won from second after Verstappen started on pole.

It is worth noting, however, that this is the 21st time in his F1 career that Leclerc has won pole. So, he hasn’t exactly thrived from this position.

In any event, I’m staying away from race winner picks because of the high likelihood that Verstappen will vroom vroom his way to victory.

However, even if he isn’t able to claim his sixth career win, we should see Leclerc on the podium. This is his third pole of the season, joining his results at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix and Belgian Grand Prix.

Both times, he finished third. At Bovada, he is -120 to finish in the top three, which is great value despite Ferrari’s aversion to reliability and Leclerc’s own aversion to good luck.

For the first time all season, Fernando Alonso failed to make it to Q3 yesterday. The two-time F1 world champion will start 17th, so he will have his work cut out for him to have a solid Sunday.

But he has finished outside of the top ten in only one race this season (the Singapore Grand Prix), and at +110 for a top-ten finish, you are getting value that you normally won’t get, as is the case with Verstappen’s race winner odds.

Where to Bet on F1

Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Over the course of the season, you can bet on races like the Monaco Grand Prix, British Grand Prix, and more.

Along with being able to bet on F1 race winner odds for each race throughout the season, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top three, top five, and/or top ten) and other special markets.

Also, while this year’s championship race is already over, you can find F1 championship winner odds each year at most sportsbooks that accept USA bettors.

In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in betting on F1: