Betfair Sprint Cup: the case for and against Shaquille
Shaquille is hot favourite to stay on a roll and win the Betfair Sprint Cup at Haydock Park on Saturday.
The race sponsors make him 4-5 to land a third successive Group One prize but will the Julie Camacho-trained three-year-old deliver for his growing fan club? Here are six reasons why he will . . . and six why he won’t.
SIX SHAQUILLE POSITIVES
1 He’s won seven of his eight races and got the best form, reflected by his official rating of 120. Kinross (119), Khadeem (117) and Run To Freedom (116) are his only possible rivals rated within 6lb of him – and he had them all behind when winning the July Cup at Newmarket last time. Moreover, Ralph Beckett has suggested Kinross will not run.
2 If Kinross doesn’t line up, then Shaquille will have won as many Group One races as all his possible rivals put together. Khadeem and Lezoo are the only others in the field to have won at the highest level.
3 Bungled starts did not stop him winning either the Commonwealth Cup or July Cup plus he’s since had more stalls training, which has apparently gone well. Just think of what he what might be capable of when breaking on terms.
4 Six races over six furlongs have yielded six wins – 666; he’s a beast alright. Five of those victories have come on straight tracks, like that at Haydock. He’s never won by less than a length and defeated 50 rivals in those contests, improving in chunks along the journey.
5 James Doyle is 2/2 on him and is belatedly reunited, having been unavailable at Ascot and Newmarket. The partnership has yet to have a blip at the gates, making all at Newbury in May. Doyle guided Hello Youmzain to victory in the 2019 renewal and got back to winning ways at the highest level aboard Warm Heart in last month’s Yorkshire Oaks.
6 The ground seems to make no odds to him. He’s won on good to firm and heavy going, plus just about everything in between.
SIX SHAQUILLE NEGATIVES
1 The Sprint Cup has been a graveyard for short-priced favourites. This century, there have been seven market leaders who have gone off 6/4 or shorter and they have all been beaten. Five of those have been three-year-olds. The brilliant Oasis Dream started the ball rolling when second at 8/11 in 2003, with One Cool Cat (6/4) and Proclamation (also 6/4) turned over in the next two years. Sakhee’s Secret was fifth at 11/8 in 2007 and since then Starspangledbanner (11/8 in 2010), Harry Angel (6/4 in 2018) and Starman (Evens in 2021) have also left favourite backers with singed fingers.
Stroll down memory lane with our Sprint Cup memories
2 His problems at the stalls and keen nature have become a recurring theme. He missed a race at Newcastle in April when refusing to enter the gates and one day you sense it may again all go pear-shaped for a horse who is routinely fitted with a hood.
3 On the subject of headgear, there has not been a Sprint Cup wearing any form of it since the visored Goodricke struck in 2005. Since then, 34 runners have worn cheekpieces, blinkers, a visor or a hood and all have been been defeated.
4 The last July Cup winner to contest the Sprint Cup was Starman, two years ago. Like Shaquille, he boasted a mark of 120 and was clear top-rated. He went off at Evens but had to settle for second.
5 When Shaquille won the July Cup, he was Julie Camacho’s sixth winner from 22 runners. But since that memorable day at Newmarket, she’s had only two victories to cheer from 52 runners. Seventeen of those have been beaten at single-figure odds. She’s admitted “we had something low-grade” but that “we’re gradually getting happier with the horses”. There’s no suggestion Shaquille has been under the weather but the stable dip is a niggle.
6 He was in action on the all-weather in early December and has been on the go since the spring, when the All-Weather Championships were his focus. He’s stood up well to his campaign but at some stage his exploits may catch up with him.
ANDY’S BIG-RACE TIP
That not so magnificent list of seven short-price favourites to have fluffed their lines in the Sprint Cup is gnawing at me. It’s been one race too many for a string of top sprinters who, on form, had excellent claims. And the bulk of them have been three-year-olds.
There are enough chinks in Shaquille’s armour to suggest he could also come up short, for all he will be hard to beat if reproducing anything like his best form. At the prices, I much prefer Saint Lawrence, who looks chunky at 14/1 given he has turned over a new leaf in two starts for Archie Watson.
It was difficult not to be impressed by the way he won the Wokingham on stable debut at Royal Ascot in June and he indicated he could win at the highest level when a close third in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time.
He tanked through that Deauville race, probably doing a bit too much early on, but almost swept from last to first despite having to weave around to get a clear run. There is also substance to the form. Art Power was fifth in France, being beaten a similar distance as when fourth to Shaquille in the July Cup. And the sixth at Deauville, Sandrine, has since run a cracker behind Kinross at York.
