Blue Jays odds vs. Padres July 18: Manoah, Toronto slight home underdogs

Was Alek Manoah’s return to the majors a fluke, or was it the start of a comeback story? We’ll know more tonight as he faces the San Diego Padres.

The latest: Manoah will face a star-studded yet underperforming Padres lineup that sits right around league average in terms of OPS (.729) and scoring (4.5 runs/game). Toronto has won eight of its past nine games but is still a home underdog against a San Diego squad that’s outside the playoff picture.

Blue Jays odds vs. Padres

MLB odds as of 9:50 a.m. ET on 07/18/23.

Blue Jays vs. Padres preview

Toronto is scorching right now. But it has an enigmatic starter on the mound, and that raises enough of a question to make this team a slight underdog on home turf.

Manoah (2-7, 5.91 ERA) worked six innings of one-run ball in his return to the majors on July 7. Tonight, we’ll see if that was merely a blip — or something to build on.

His issues this year are well-documented, and they include allowing 11 runs over 2.2 innings in the Florida Complex League just three weeks ago. Dominating a big-league club (even if it’s just the Tigers) is encouraging, but one start may not be enough to instill much confidence.

If anyone should be confident, though, it’s Padres starter Joe Musgrove. The Blue Jays’ 2011 first-round draftee has been dynamite for his club, compiling a 1.79 ERA over his past nine starts. San Diego is 7-2 in those games.

Looking only at the pitching matchup, it’s easy to see why the Friars are favoured.

But it’s worth a reminder that the Jays are on fire — winning six of their past seven series — and they’ve gone 26-18 at home this year.

The Padres are a lowly 19-27 on the road, which is the sixth-worst mark in baseball.

Prop markets

Manoah struck out eight Detroit batters last time out, but his line for tonight is set at a much lower 4.5.

That’s due in part to the fact that he’s averaging just 4.0 Ks per start this year, and the Padres’ K-rate is below league average (22.4%, 17th in MLB).

Only two Toronto hitters have faced Musgrove 10-plus times, and one of those guys is Daulton Varsho. The outfielder is 4-for-11 (.364) against Musgrove with a pair of doubles and a home run.

George Springer has picked up right where he left off coming out of the all-star break and is now 14-for-41 (.342) this month. He has a hit in eight of nine games while scoring six times.

Padres slugger Manny Machado has already homered eight times through 12 games in July, driving in 18 runs in that span. He’s also crossed the plate in nine of 12 games.

Here are some of the top prop markets for today.

MLB odds as of 9:50 a.m. ET on 07/18/23.